Possible physical routes are presented that link the decline in sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS), the sea surface temperature anomaly in the pattern of the North Atlantic tripole (NAT), and the Siberian cold anomaly in boreal winter, via mid–high-latitude circulation anomalies mainly characterized by Ural blocking (UB). It is found that the Siberian cold anomalies with BKS SIC loss are mostly related to UB, while those without significant BKS SIC loss are significantly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The negative/positive-phase NAT (NAT⁻/NAT⁺) exerts its impact on the cold/warm anomalies over northern Eurasia through coupling with the negative/positive-phase NAO (NAO⁻/NAO⁺). In particular, a strong NAT⁻ winter tends to cause a cold anomaly shifting southwards from the polar area to mid–high-latitude of Eurasia, producing a severe cold event over Siberia. From the perspective of intraseasonal atmospheric circulation, a UB event under NAT⁻ winter leads to a more intense Siberian cold anomaly than one under NAT⁺, suggesting a vital role played by the NAO in forming cold conditions in Siberia. Considering the effects of BKS sea-ice variation, it is revealed that the UB-related Siberian cold anomaly tends to achieve its maximum strength in a NAT⁻ winter when the BKS SIC declines. However, for winters with sea ice loss in BKS but a weak NAT⁺, the UB-related Siberian cold anomaly shows southward displacement. It is also found that strong NAT⁻ coupling with a strong NAO⁻ can cause cold conditions in Siberia without the need for a BKS SIC decline and long-lived UB, and this explains 75% of the cold Siberian winters in the context of increased BKS SIC.

提出了将巴伦支海-卡拉海 (BKS) 海冰浓度 (SIC) 下降、北大西洋三极 (NAT) 模式中的海面温度异常和西伯利亚冷异常联系起来的可能物理路线。北方冬季，通过以乌拉尔阻塞（UB）为主要特征的中高纬度环流异常。发现具有BKS SIC损失的西伯利亚冷异常主要与UB有关，而没有显着BKS SIC损失的西伯利亚冷异常与北大西洋涛动（NAO）显着相关。负/正相位NAT (NAT ⁻ /NAT ⁺ )通过与负/正相位NAO (NAO ⁻ /NAO ⁺⁾耦合对欧亚大陆北部冷暖异常产生影响）。特别是，强烈的 NAT ^-冬季往往会导致寒冷异常从极地地区向南转移到欧亚大陆的中高纬度地区，从而在西伯利亚产生严重的寒冷事件。从季节内大气环流的角度来看，NAT ^- winter下的UB事件比NAT ⁺下的UB事件导致更强烈的西伯利亚冷异常，表明NAO在形成西伯利亚寒冷条件中发挥了至关重要的作用。考虑到 BKS 海冰变化的影响，表明 UB 相关的西伯利亚冷异常在 NAT ^-冬季 BKS SIC 下降时趋于达到其最大强度。但是，对于 BKS 海冰消失但 NAT ⁺较弱的冬季，与UB相关的西伯利亚冷异常显示向南位移。还发现强 NAT ^-与强 NAO 耦合^-可以在不需要 BKS SIC 下降和长期 UB 的情况下导致西伯利亚的寒冷条件，这解释了在 BKS 增加的情况下西伯利亚寒冷冬季的 75%碳化硅。