Modelling future change to land use and land cover is done as part of many local and global scenario environmental assessments. Nevertheless, there are still considerable challenges related to simulating land-use responses to climate change. Mostly, climate change is considered by changing the temperature and precipitation, affecting the spatial distribution and productivity of future land use and land cover as result of differential changes in growing conditions. Other climate change effects, such as changes in the water resources needed to support future cropland expansion and intensification, are often neglected. In this study, we demonstrate how including different types of responses to climate change influences the simulation of future changes to land use and land cover, and land management. We study the influence of including different climate change effects in land system modeling step by step. The results show that land system models need to include numerous simultaneous climate change effects, particularly when looking at adaptation options such as implementing irrigation. Otherwise, there is a risk of biased impact estimates leading either to under- or overestimation of the consequences of land use change, including land degradation. Spatial land system models therefore need to be developed accounting for a multitude of climate change impacts, uncertainties related to climate data, and an assessment of the sensitivity of the outcomes toward the decisions of modellers on representing climate change impacts.

中文翻译：

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代表空间土地系统模型对气候变化的响应


对未来土地利用和土地覆盖变化进行建模是许多当地和全球情景环境评估的一部分。尽管如此，模拟土地利用对气候变化的反应仍然存在相当大的挑战。大多数情况下，气候变化是通过改变温度和降水来考虑的，由于生长条件的差异变化，影响未来土地利用和土地覆盖的空间分布和生产力。其他气候变化影响，例如支持未来农田扩张和集约化所需的水资源变化，往往被忽视。在这项研究中，我们展示了对气候变化的不同类型的反应如何影响对未来土地利用和土地覆盖以及土地管理变化的模拟。我们逐步研究在土地系统建模中纳入不同气候变化效应的影响。结果表明，土地系统模型需要包括许多同时发生的气候变化影响，特别是在考虑实施灌溉等适应方案时。否则，存在影响估计偏差的风险，导致低估或高估土地利用变化的后果，包括土地退化。因此，需要开发空间土地系统模型，以考虑多种气候变化影响、与气候数据相关的不确定性，以及评估结果对建模者代表气候变化影响的决策的敏感性。