Background: It is much valuable to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and control in the non-pharmacological intervention phase of the pandemic across countries and identify useful experiences that could be generalized worldwide. Methods: In this study, we developed a susceptible-exposure-infectious-asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model to fit the daily reported COVID-19 cases in 160 countries. The time-varying reproduction number (R t ) that was estimated through fitting the mathematical model was adopted to quantify the transmissibility. We defined a synthetic index (I AC ) based on the value of R t to reflect the national capability to control COVID-19. Results: The goodness-of-fit tests showed that the SEIAR model fitted the data of the 160 countries well. At the beginning of the epidemic, the values of R t of countries in the European region were generally higher than those in other regions. Among the 160 countries included in the study, all European countries had the ability to control the COVID-19 epidemic. The Western Pacific Region did best in continuous control of the epidemic, with a total of 73.76% of countries that can continuously control the COVID-19 epidemic, while only 43.63% of the countries in the European Region continuously controlled the epidemic, followed by the Region of Americas with 52.53% of countries, the Southeast Asian Region with 48% of countries, the African Region with 46.81% of countries, and the Eastern Mediterranean Region with 40.48% of countries. Conclusion: Large variations in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic existed across countries. The world could benefit from the experience of some countries that demonstrated the highest containment capabilities.

中文翻译：

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遏制 COVID-19 的传播：在 160 个国家进行的建模研究。

背景：评估 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 预防和控制在各国大流行的非药物干预阶段的比较有效性并确定可在全球推广的有用经验非常有价值。方法：在这项研究中，我们开发了一种易感暴露感染无症状去除 (SEIAR) 模型，以适应 160 个国家/地区每日报告的 COVID-19 病例。通过拟合数学模型估计的时变再生数（R t ）被用于量化传播率。我们根据 R t 的值定义了一个综合指数 (I AC )，以反映国家控制 COVID-19 的能力。结果：拟合优度检验表明，SEIAR模型对160个国家的数据拟合较好。疫情初期，欧洲地区国家的R t 值普遍高于其他地区。在纳入研究的 160 个国家中，所有欧洲国家都有能力控制 COVID-19 疫情。西太平洋地区在持续控制疫情方面做得最好，共有73.76%的国家可以持续控制COVID-19疫情，而欧洲地区只有43.63%的国家持续控制疫情，其次是美洲地区占国家总数的 52.53%，东南亚地区占国家总数的 48%，非洲地区占国家总数的 46.81%，东地中海地区占国家总数的 40.48%。结论：各国在控制 COVID-19 流行病方面存在很大差异。