In December 2019, the EU announced the European Green Deal (EGD) to create a climate-neutral continent by 2050. Accordingly, the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) will be revised to maintain economic growth against possible losses in competitiveness, leading to “carbon leakage.” Carbon border adjustment (CBA) is one of the mechanisms proposed to tackle the carbon leakage problem. In this paper, we provide a first-order estimate of the potential impacts of a possible CBA across production sectors and build a dynamic, multi-sectoral applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to study the overall macroeconomic impact of the EGD on the Turkish economy. Then, we extend our analysis to document the potential benefits of a more active climate policy. The model is in the Walrasian tradition wherein aggregate supply and demand actions are simulated with the interplay of relative prices to bring equilibrium in the markets for goods, for labor, and for foreign exchange. Constructed around 24 production sectors, the model accommodates flexible, multi-level functional forms to link production activities with gaseous emissions, a government entity to maintain taxation, and public expenditures, as well as administration of environmental policy instruments, all within an open-economy macroeconomic environment. Our results suggest that the potential adverse impact of the CBA on the Turkish economy would range between 2.7 and 3.6% loss of the GDP by 2030 over the business-as-(un)usual base path. We also document that under an alternative scenario through which Turkey is modeled as an active agent in the international climate policy arena embedding decarbonization into her official macroeconomic policy agenda, she can achieve a superior pathway for national income and a reduced carbon burden.

2019 年 12 月，欧盟宣布了欧洲绿色协议 (EGD)，以在 2050 年前创建一个气候中和的大陆。因此，欧盟排放交易体系 (ETS) 将进行修订，以保持经济增长以应对可能的竞争力损失，从而导致“碳泄漏。” 碳边界调整（CBA）是为解决碳泄漏问题而提出的机制之一。在本文中，我们对可能的 CBA 对生产部门的潜在影响进行一阶估计，并建立一个动态的、多部门的应用一般均衡 (AGE) 模型来研究 EGD 对土耳其经济的整体宏观经济影响. 然后，我们扩展分析以记录更积极的气候政策的潜在好处。该模型是在瓦尔拉斯在传统中，总供给和需求行为通过相对价格的相互作用来模拟，以实现商品、劳动力和外汇市场的平衡。该模型围绕 24 个生产部门构建，提供灵活、多层次的功能形式，将生产活动与气体排放、维持税收和公共支出的政府实体以及环境政策工具的管理联系起来，所有这些都在开放经济中宏观经济环境。我们的研究结果表明，到 2030 年，CBA 对土耳其经济的潜在不利影响将在（非）常规基准路径上造成 GDP 损失 2.7% 到 3.6% 之间。