The fragile ecosystem of the desiccated Amu Darya River Basin (ADRB) has experienced profound local hydrological havoc. These changes are associated with temperature, evapotranspiration, precipitation, and human-induced effects. However, previous long-term analyses have inadequately addressed these problems at the basin scale. Therefore, this study applied the elasticity coefficient method coupled with the water balance and Budyko framework, using hydro-meteorological observation data from three stations (Termez, Atamurat, and Kiziljar) to assess the long-term (1960–2017) runoff dynamics within the ADRB. The findings revealed that runoff at the three stations decreased at rates of −0.52 mm/a, −0.80 mm/a, and −0.97 mm/a, respectively, during the study period. Additionally, the relative contribution of climate change to runoff reduction ranged from −14.25% to −5.43%, while that of human activities exceeded 100% at all three stations. In addition, the total population across the basin has doubled within 33 years to approximately 80 million people, coupled with an expansion of cropland areas at a rate of 42.6%, corresponding to a net increase of 2,520,249 ha. Furthermore, the construction of reservoirs that were implemented before cropland expansion activities reduced the amount of water flowing downstream since runoff needs to be stored before being released for irrigation. This demonstrates that long-term runoff reduction was mainly due to human activities, with construction of reservoirs for cropland expansion being the most direct factor. The study findings provide essential information for water resource management in the ADRB. More attention should be paid to the construction and operation of reservoirs, and sustainable cropland development should be implemented for improved ecological environment.

干燥的阿姆河流域 (ADRB) 脆弱的生态系统经历了深刻的当地水文破坏。这些变化与温度、蒸散、降水和人为影响有关。然而，之前的长期分析未能充分解决流域尺度上的这些问题。因此，本研究应用弹性系数方法结合水量平衡和 Budyko 框架，使用来自三个站点（Termez、Atamurat 和 Kiziljar）的水文气象观测数据来评估长期（1960-2017）内的径流动态。 ADRB。结果显示，在研究期间，三个站点的径流分别以 -0.52 mm/a、-0.80 mm/a 和 -0.97 mm/a 的速率下降。此外，气候变化对径流减少的相对贡献范围为-14.25%至-5.43%，而人类活动对三个站点的贡献均超过100%。此外，流域总人口在 33 年内翻了一番，达到约 8000 万人，加上耕地面积以 42.6% 的速度扩大，相当于净增加 2,520,249 公顷。此外，在农田扩张活动之前实施的水库建设减少了向下游流动的水量，因为径流需要在排放用于灌溉之前储存。这表明长期径流减少主要是人类活动造成的，其中最直接的因素是建水库扩大耕地。研究结果为 ADRB 的水资源管理提供了重要信息。重视水库建设和运行，实施可持续耕地开发，改善生态环境。