Context

Validation of models of Land Use and Cover Change often involves comparing maps of simulated and reference change. The interpretation of differences between simulated and reference change depends on the characteristics of the process being studied. Our paper focuses on validation of models of one-way land change processes that spread in space.

Objectives

Our objective is to develop a method for validation of one-way land change models, such that the method provides objective information about the spatial distribution of errors.

Methods

Using distance analysis on reference data, we build a baseline model for comparison with simulations. We then simultaneously compare the four maps of reference at initial time, reference at final time, simulation at final time, and baseline at final time. We also use Total Operating Characteristic curves and multiple-resolution map comparison. We illustrate the methods with a simulation of forest insect infestations.

Results

The methods give insights concerning the reference data and the spatial distribution of misses, hits, and false alarms with respect to initial points of infestations. The new methods reveal that the simulations underestimated change near initial points of spread.

Conclusions

The spatial distribution of errors is a topic of land change models that deserves attention. For models of one-way, geographically-spreading processes, we recommend that validation should distinguish between near and far allocation errors with respect to initial points of spread.

中文翻译：

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单向土地变化的验证模型：以森林昆虫干扰为例

语境

土地利用和覆盖变化模型的验证通常涉及比较模拟和参考变化的地图。模拟变化和参考变化之间差异的解释取决于所研究过程的特征。我们的论文侧重于验证在空间中传播的单向土地变化过程模型。

目标

我们的目标是开发一种验证单向土地变化模型的方法，以便该方法提供有关误差空间分布的客观信息。

方法

使用对参考数据的距离分析，我们建立了一个基线模型以与模拟进行比较。然后我们同时比较初始时间参考、最终时间参考、最终时间模拟和最终时间基线的四个地图。我们还使用总操作特性曲线和多分辨率图比较。我们通过模拟森林昆虫侵扰来说明这些方法。

结果

这些方法提供了关于参考数据以及相对于初始侵扰点的未命中、命中和误报的空间分布的见解。新方法表明，模拟低估了初始传播点附近的变化。

结论

误差的空间分布是土地变化模型中值得关注的一个话题。对于单向、地理分布过程的模型，我们建议验证应该区分关于初始传播点的近端和远端分配错误。