The environmental benefits of low-carbon technologies, such as photovoltaic modules, have been under debate because their large-scale deployment will require a drastic increase in metal production. This is of concern because higher metal demand may induce ore grade decline and can thereby further intensify the environmental footprint of metal supply. To account for this interlinkage known as the “energy-resource nexus”, energy and metal supply scenarios need to be assessed in conjunction. We investigate the trends of future impacts of metal supplies and low-carbon technologies, considering both metal and electricity supply scenarios. We develop metal supply scenarios for copper, nickel, zinc, and lead, extending previous work. Our scenarios consider developments such as ore grade decline, energy-efficiency improvements, and secondary production shares. We also include two future electricity supply scenarios from the IMAGE model using a recently published methodology. Both scenarios are incorporated into the background database of ecoinvent to realize an integrated modeling approach, that is, future metal supply chains make use of future electricity and vice versa. We find that impacts of the modeled metal supplies and low-carbon technologies may decrease in the future. Key drivers for impact reductions are the electricity transition and increasing secondary production shares. Considering both metal and electricity scenarios has proven valuable because they drive impact reductions in different categories, namely human toxicity (up to −43%) and climate change (up to −63%), respectively. Thus, compensating for lower ore grades and reducing impacts beyond climate change requires both greener electricity and also sustainable metal supply. This article met the requirements for a Gold-Gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges

中文翻译：

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未来关键金属供应和低碳技术对环境的影响可能会减少

光伏组件等低碳技术的环境效益一直备受争议，因为它们的大规模部署将需要大幅增加金属产量。这是令人担忧的，因为更高的金属需求可能会导致矿石品位下降，从而进一步加剧金属供应的环境足迹。为了解释这种被称为“能源-资源关系”的相互联系，需要结合评估能源和金属供应情景。我们研究了金属供应和低碳技术对未来影响的趋势，同时考虑了金属和电力供应情景。我们开发了铜、镍、锌和铅的金属供应方案，扩展了之前的工作。我们的情景考虑了矿石品位下降、能源效率提高、和二次生产份额。我们还使用最近发布的方法从 IMAGE 模型中纳入了两个未来的电力供应情景。这两个场景都被纳入ecoinvent的后台数据库，实现了一种集成的建模方法，即未来金属供应链利用未来电力，反之亦然。我们发现模拟金属供应和低碳技术的影响在未来可能会减少。减少影响的关键驱动因素是电力转型和增加二次生产份额。考虑到金属和电力情景已被证明是有价值的，因为它们可以减少不同类别的影响，即人类毒性（高达 -43%）和气候变化（高达 -63%），分别。因此，补偿较低的矿石品位并减少气候变化以外的影响需要更环保的电力和可持续的金属供应。这篇文章符合Gold-Gold的要求JIE数据开放徽章描述于 http://jie.click/badges