The aim of this paper is to review and evaluate models used to assess the market penetration of energy technologies. While there are different models and tools, choosing the appropriate approach for a particular application is very challenging. In this paper, each model is reviewed and discussed extensively and a hierarchy diagram is developed to help choose a model. Market penetration models based on subjective estimation and market survey could be individual-dependent and not reliable for long-term forecasts. Cost estimation, diffusion, and econometric models offer more reliable results both for short- and long-term forecasts. Based on the review, a new combined model was developed and applied to a case study. The combined use of different market penetration models offers more accurate and robust results, as demonstrated in the case study.

本文的目的是审查和评估用于评估能源技术市场渗透的模型。虽然有不同的模型和工具，但为特定应用选择合适的方法非常具有挑战性。在本文中，对每个模型进行了广泛的审查和讨论，并开发了层次结构图以帮助选择模型。基于主观估计和市场调查的市场渗透模型可能因人而异，长期预测不可靠。成本估算、扩散和计量经济模型为短期和长期预测提供了更可靠的结果。在审查的基础上，开发了一种新的组合模型并将其应用于案例研究。如案例研究所示，结合使用不同的市场渗透模型可提供更准确和可靠的结果。