Producing organic milk has been an alternative for conventional farmers who are struggling with low prices. However, organic dairy prices recently collapsed along with conventional prices when several large producers entered the organic market. The current study explores the patterns and determinants of organic dairy premiums. We estimate monthly price premiums for organic whole milk, other fluid milk, yogurt, and eggs over the period 2008–2017 using US retail scanner data. The premiums were 56%, 51%, 27%, and 38%, respectively, with annual compound growth rates of 8%, 7%, −1.42%, and −2.86%. We identify the determinants of price premiums with a vector autoregression to account for endogeneity and autocorrelation, and a machine-learning algorithm—extreme gradient boost—for data-driven insights. Holding the premiums fixed, growing input costs may induce organic sellers to sell more to compensate for costs. Holding organic sales fixed, organic premiums decrease in conventional share of organic, cost of diesel, electricity, and feed grains in general; but increase in the number of shoppers and wages. [EconLit citations: C55, Q130].

中文翻译：

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美国有机牛奶、鸡蛋和酸奶溢价的长期动态

生产有机牛奶一直是为低价而苦苦挣扎的传统农民的替代选择。然而，当几家大型生产商进入有机市场时，有机乳制品价格最近与传统价格一起暴跌。目前的研究探讨了有机乳制品溢价的模式和决定因素。我们使用美国零售扫描数据估算了 2008-2017 年期间有机全脂牛奶、其他液态奶、酸奶和鸡蛋的月度溢价。保费分别为56%、51%、27%和38%，年复合增长率分别为8%、7%、-1.42%和-2.86%。我们通过向量自回归来确定价格溢价的决定因素以解释内生性和自相关，并使用机器学习算法（极端梯度提升）来获得数据驱动的洞察力。保费固定不变，不断增长的投入成本可能会诱使有机卖家增加销售以补偿成本。保持有机销售额不变，有机溢价在传统有机份额、柴油、电力和饲料谷物的成本方面普遍下降；但购物者人数和工资的增加。[EconLit 引文：C55，Q130]。