ABSTRACT

In North America, alternative energy policies have been mostly focused on first-generation biofuels. There is continued development of second-generation biofuels (SGB), crops founded upon low-value feedstocks thriving on marginal (low quality) land. SGB’s alter the farming decision environment since they do not compete directly with high-value annual crops. To examine possible future consequences of SGB’s on mixed farming, we develop anagent-based simulation model (ABM) of a major agricultural region in Western Canada. If energy prices for SGB’s rise high enough, there will likely be structural changes in the sector. Farmers with significant quantities of marginal land experience the greatest benefit adopting energy crops. Spillover effects of energy crop adoption will also be felt in the beef industry since cattle numbers will be gradually reduced. Simulation results also indicate that beef farmers are better off with SGB crops since energy crops stabilise farm income as average farm size decreases.

摘要

在北美，替代能源政策主要集中在第一代生物燃料上。第二代生物燃料 (SGB) 持续发展，这种作物以低价值原料为基础，在边际（低质量）土地上茁壮成长。SGB 改变了农业决策环境，因为它们不直接与高价值的一年生作物竞争。为了研究 SGB 对混合农业未来可能产生的影响，我们开发了加拿大西部一个主要农业区的基于代理的模拟模型 (ABM)。如果 SGB 的能源价格涨得足够高，该行业可能会发生结构性变化。拥有大量边际土地的农民在采用能源作物后受益最大。牛肉行业也将感受到采用能源作物的溢出效应，因为牛的数量将逐渐减少。模拟结果还表明，随着农场平均规模的缩小，能源作物可以稳定农场收入，养牛户种植 SGB 作物的情况会更好。