The stringency of the EU's Emission Trading System (ETS) is bound to be ratcheted-up to deliver on more ambitious goals as formulated in the EU's Green Deal. Tightening the cap needs to consider the interactions with the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), which will be reviewed in 2021. We analyse these issues using the model LIMES-EU. First, we examine how revising MSR parameters impacts allowance cancellations. We find that varying key design parameters leads to cancellations in the range of 2.6–7.9 Gt – compared to 5.1 Gt under current regulation. Overall, the bank thresholds, which define when there is intake to/outtake from the MSR, have the highest impact. Intake rates above 12% only have a limited effect, and cause oscillatory intake behaviour. Second, we analyse how more ambitious climate 2030 targets can be achieved by adjusting the linear reduction factor (LRF). We find that the LRF increases MSR cancellations substantially up to 10.0 Gt. This implies that increasing its value from currently 2.2% to only 2.6% could be consistent with an EU-wide target of −55% by 2030. However, MSR cancellations are subject to large uncertainty, which increases the complexity of the market and induces high price uncertainty.

欧盟排放交易体系 (ETS) 的严格性势必会逐步提高，以实现欧盟绿色协议中制定的更雄心勃勃的目标。收紧上限需要考虑与市场稳定储备 (MSR) 的相互作用，这将在 2021 年进行审查。我们使用 LIMES-EU 模型分析这些问题。首先，我们检查修改 MSR 参数如何影响配额取消。我们发现，不同的关键设计参数会导致 2.6-7.9 Gt 范围内的取消——而在现行法规下为 5.1 Gt。总体而言，确定何时从 MSR 接收/从 MSR 接收的银行阈值具有最大的影响。超过 12% 的摄入率只会产生有限的影响，并导致振荡的摄入行为。第二，我们分析了如何通过调整线性减少因子 (LRF) 来实现更雄心勃勃的 2030 年气候目标。我们发现 LRF 将 MSR 取消大幅增加到 10.0 Gt。这意味着将其价值从目前的 2.2% 增加到仅 2.6% 可能与到 2030 年欧盟范围内的 -55% 的目标一致。然而，MSR 的取消存在很大的不确定性，这增加了市场的复杂性并导致高价格不确定性。