Climate risk factors, including wildfire, sea level rise, inland flooding, and extreme heat, as well as gentrification displacement pressures will be primary drivers of migration in the coming years. Travel demand modeling relies on reasonable and appropriate forecasts of demographic totals at the detail of travel analysis zones. Methodologies for developing scenarios in response to individual and combined climate risk factors are described, drawing on work undertaken for the Southern California Association of Governments SoCal Regional Climate Adaptation Framework. Methodologies for developing scenarios in response to gentrification displacement pressures of low-income workers are described, drawing on work carried out for the California Statewide Freight Forecasting and Travel Demand Model. These methodologies leverage modeling tools that are readily available to agencies, allowing for rapid testing of scenarios and integration with other planning processes. Climate adaptation and housing policy, respectively, are currently in need of greater integration and coordination. Future directions are explored to integrate these methodologies and create a combined demographic relocation model, sensitive to both climate risk factors and the affordability and gentrification displacement pressures arising out of shifting demand–supply dynamics and population–job balance in high growth areas.

气候风险因素，包括野火、海平面上升、内陆洪水和极端高温，以及高档化流离失所压力，将成为未来几年移民的主要驱动力。旅行需求建模依赖于对旅行分析区域细节的人口总数的合理和适当的预测。根据为南加州政府协会 SoCal 区域气候适应框架开展的工作，描述了针对单个和组合气候风险因素制定情景的方法。描述了开发情景以应对低收入工人的高档化流离失所压力的方法，借鉴了为加利福尼亚州全州货运预测和旅行需求模型开展的工作。这些方法利用机构随时可用的建模工具，允许快速测试场景并与其他规划流程集成。气候适应和住房政策目前分别需要更大的整合和协调。探索未来的方向以整合这些方法并创建一个组合的人口迁移模型，该模型对气候风险因素以及高增长地区需求-供应动态和人口-工作平衡变化引起的负担能力和高档化流离失所压力都很敏感。