Climate change may interact with nitrogen fertilizer management leading to different ammonia loss in China’s croplands,Global Change Biology

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Climate change may interact with nitrogen fertilizer management leading to different ammonia loss in China’s croplands
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-03 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15874
Xiangrui Xu ₁ , Xiao Ouyang ₁ , Yining Gu ₁ , Kun Cheng ₁ , Pete Smith ₂ , Jianfei Sun ₁ , Yunpeng Li ₁ , Genxing Pan ₁

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Despite research into the response of ammonia (NH₃) volatilization in farmland to various meteorological factors, the potential impact of future climate change on NH₃ volatilization is not fully understood. Based on a database consisting of 1063 observations across China, nonlinear NH₃ models considering crop type, meteorological, soil and management variables were established via four machine learning methods, including support vector machine, multi-layer perceptron, gradient boosting machine and random forest (RF). The RF model had the highest R² of 0.76 and the lowest RMSE of 0.82 kg NH₃-N ha⁻¹, showing the best simulation capability. Results of model importance indicated that NH₃ volatilization was mainly controlled by total input of N fertilizer, followed by meteorological factors, human managements and soil characteristics. The NH₃ emissions of China's cereal production (paddy rice, wheat and maize) in 2018 was estimated to be 3.3 Mt NH₃-N. By 2050, NH₃ volatilization will increase by 23.1−32.0% under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), and climate change will have the greatest impact on NH₃ volatilization in the Yangtze river agro-region of China due to high warming effects. However, the potential increase in NH₃ volatilization under future climate change can be mitigated by 26.1−47.5% through various N fertilizer management optimization options.

更新日期：2021-11-12

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