Abstract. The economic consequences of drought episodes are increasingly important, although they are often difficult to apprehend in part because of the complexity of the underlying mechanisms. In this article, we will study one of the consequences of drought, namely the risk of subsidence (or more specifically clay shrinkage induced subsidence), for which insurance has been mandatory in France for several decades. Using data obtained from several insurers, representing about a quarter of the household insurance market, over the past twenty years, we propose some statistical models to predict the frequency but also the intensity of these droughts, for insurers, showing that climate change will have probably major economic consequences on this risk. But even if we use more advanced models than standard regression-type models (here random forests to capture non linearity and cross effects), it is still difficult to predict the economic cost of subsidence claims, even if all geophysical and climatic information is available.

中文翻译：

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预测法国的干旱和沉降风险

摘要。干旱事件的经济后果越来越重要，尽管它们往往难以理解，部分原因是潜在机制的复杂性。在本文中，我们将研究干旱的后果之一，即沉降风险（或更具体地说，粘土收缩引起的沉降），几十年来，法国一直强制要求投保。使用从代表家庭保险市场四分之一左右的几家保险公司获得的数据，在过去的二十年中，我们提出了一些统计模型来预测这些干旱的频率和强度，对于保险公司来说，表明气候变化可能会这种风险的重大经济后果。