Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), the native budworm, is an important highly polyphagous pest that has caused serious damage on a wide variety of crops in Australia. In Australia, its range overlaps that of its congener, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), a notorious invasive pest globally. We used CLIMEX, a bioclimatic niche modelling software package, to estimate the potential geographical distribution of H. punctigera under current and future climates (A1B scenario). Under both current and future climate conditions, the model indicates that H. punctigera could establish throughout the tropics and subtropics. Comparing the potential distributions under each climate scenario revealed that in the future its potential distribution is likely to shift poleward and into higher altitudes, into areas that are currently too cold as observed in the South of Brazil, Europe, North America, South East Asia, and South Pacific Islands including New Zealand. The projected potential distribution can inform pre- and post-border biosecurity strategies for the management of this pest in each country.

Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) 是一种原生芽虫，是一种重要的高度杂食性害虫，对澳大利亚的多种农作物造成了严重破坏。在澳大利亚，它的分布范围与其同系物Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) 重叠，后者是一种全球臭名昭著的入侵性害虫。我们使用生物气候生态位建模软件包 CLIMEX 来估计H. punctigera在当前和未来气候下的潜在地理分布（A1B 情景）。在当前和未来的气候条件下，该模型表明H. punctigera可以在整个热带和亚热带建立。比较每种气候情景下的潜在分布表明，未来其潜在分布可能会向极地转移并进入更高的海拔，进入目前在巴西南部、欧洲、北美、东南亚观察到的过冷地区，和包括新西兰在内的南太平洋岛屿。预计的潜在分布可以为每个国家管理这种有害生物的边界前后的生物安全战略提供信息。