Climate change has made many alterations to the climate of earth, including hydro-climatic extreme events. To investigate the impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological droughts in the Kamal-Saleh dam basin in Markazi province, Iran, proportional to future climate conditions, a new and comprehensive index was developed with the aim of accurately estimating drought in a more realistic condition. This aggregate drought index (ADI) represented the main meteorological and hydrological characteristics of drought. Temperature and precipitation projections for future climates were simulated by five CMIP5 models and downscaled over the study area during 2050s (2040–2069) and 2080s (2070–2099) relative to the baseline period (1976–2005). By fitting five univariate distribution functions on drought severity and duration, proper marginal distributions were selected. The joint distribution of drought severity and duration was chosen from five types of copula functions. The results revealed that in future, severe droughts are expected to frequently occur in a shorter period.

气候变化使地球气候发生了许多变化，包括水文气候极端事件。为了研究气候变化对伊朗马尔卡齐省 Kamal-Saleh 大坝盆地水文气象干旱的影响，与未来气候条件成正比，开发了一个新的综合指数，目的是在更现实的条件下准确估计干旱. 该综合干旱指数（ADI）代表了干旱的主要气象和水文特征。未来气候的温度和降水预测由五个 CMIP5 模型模拟，并在 2050 年代（2040-2069 年）和 2080 年代（2070-2099 年）相对于基线时期（1976-2005 年）缩小研究区域的尺度。通过拟合干旱严重程度和持续时间的五个单变量分布函数，选择了适当的边际分布。干旱严重程度和持续时间的联合分布是从五种类型的 copula 函数中选择的。结果表明，未来，预计在更短的时间内，严重干旱将频繁发生。