Future climate risk is not only dependent on future climatic changes but also on how exposure and vulnerability develop in the future. There is a gap in understanding what drives future climate vulnerability, and how to account for its spatial emergence. This issue is particularly pertinent for cities due to the concentration of assets and population at risk, and rapid socio-economic and land use changes. We develop a mixed methods approach, which integrates quantitative, qualitative and participatory methods to (1) identify internal and external drivers of socio-economic development and land use change, (2) explore a range of future pathways using local socio-economic scenarios, and (3) visualize changes in vulnerability indicators with the help of a participatory mapping exercise. We test the approach in the City of Helsinki with the timeframe up to 2050. Our results show the connections between the drivers and changes in vulnerability indicators, while maps developed in a stakeholder workshop visualize the potential spatial changes in indicators. Our approach of connecting indicators, drivers and adaptation/planning needs, as well as scenario analysis, provides a deeper understanding of vulnerability dynamics as a process and provides insights for different sectors of urban policy and planning.

未来的气候风险不仅取决于未来的气候变化，还取决于未来的暴露和脆弱性如何发展。在理解未来气候脆弱性的驱动因素以及如何解释其空间出现方面存在差距。由于面临风险的资产和人口的集中以及快速的社会经济和土地利用变化，这个问题对城市尤为重要。我们开发了一种混合方法，将定量、定性和参与式方法相结合，以 (1) 确定社会经济发展和土地利用变化的内部和外部驱动因素，(2) 利用当地社会经济情景探索一系列未来路径， (3) 在参与式绘图练习的帮助下，可视化脆弱性指标的变化。我们在 2050 年之前在赫尔辛基市测试了该方法。我们的结果显示了驱动因素与脆弱性指标变化之间的联系，而在利益相关者研讨会中开发的地图将指标的潜在空间变化可视化。我们将指标、驱动因素和适应/规划需求联系起来的方法，以及情景分析，提供了对脆弱性动态作为一个过程的更深入理解，并为城市政策和规划的不同部门提供了见解。