The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we go about our daily lives in ways that are unlikely to return to the pre-COVID-19 levels. A key feature of the COVID-19 era is likely to be a rethink of the way we work and the implications on commuting activity. Working from home (WFH) has been the ‘new normal’ during the period of lockdown, except for essential services that require commuting. In recognition of the new normal as represented by an increasing amount of WFH, this paper develops a model to identify the incidence of WFH and what impact this could have on the number of weekly commuting trips. Using data collected in eight countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and South Africa), we developed a Poisson regression model for the number of days individuals worked from home during the pandemic. Simulated scenarios quantify the impact of the different variables on the probability of WFH by country. The findings provide a reference point as we continue to undertake similar analysis at different points through time during the pandemic and after when restrictions are effectively removed.

COVID-19 大流行已经改变了我们的日常生活方式，但这种方式不太可能恢复到 COVID-19 之前的水平。 COVID-19 时代的一个关键特征可能是重新思考我们的工作方式及其对通勤活动的影响。除了需要通勤的基本服务外，在家工作（WFH）已成为封锁期间的“新常态”。认识到在家办公数量增加所代表的新常态，本文开发了一个模型来确定在家办公的发生率以及这对每周通勤出行次数的影响。利用在八个国家（阿根廷、澳大利亚、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、秘鲁和南非）收集的数据，我们针对大流行期间个人在家工作的天数开发了泊松回归模型。模拟情景量化了不同变量对不同国家在家办公概率的影响。这些发现为我们在大流行期间以及有效取消限制后的不同时间点继续进行类似的分析提供了参考。