ABSTRACT

The newly established South African Reserve Bank (SARB) was tasked to protect the currency by navigating the interwar gold standard, and, from March 1933, maintaining parity with the Pound Sterling. We find that South Africa’s exit from gold secured an unparalleled and rapid recovery from the Great Depression. South Africa’s exit was accompanied by an inextricable link of the SARB’s policy rate to the interest rate set by the Bank of England (BoE). This sacrifice of independent monetary policy allowed the SARB to fix the country’s exchange rate without impeding the flow of gold to London. The SARB fuelled the economy by reducing its policy rates and accumulating gold. Had South Africa not devalued, the country would have suffered a severe depression and persistent deflation. An alternative to the devaluation was for the SARB to pursue a cheap money strategy. By setting interest rates historically low, we find that South Africa could have achieved higher levels of economic growth, at the cost of higher inflation. Ultimately, South Africa’s unparalleled recovery can be ascribed to the devaluation; however the change in the SARB monetary policy and the bank’s control over the gold markets were of paramount importance.

摘要

新成立的南非储备银行 (SARB) 的任务是通过引导两次世界大战之间的金本位来保护货币，并从 1933 年 3 月开始与英镑保持平价。我们发现南非退出黄金市场确保了从大萧条中获得无与伦比的快速复苏。南非的退出伴随着 SARB 的政策利率与英格兰银行 (BoE) 设定的利率之间密不可分的联系。这种对独立货币政策的牺牲使 SARB 能够在不阻碍黄金流向伦敦的情况下确定该国的汇率。SARB 通过降低政策利率和积累黄金来推动经济发展。如果南非没有贬值，该国将遭受严重的萧条和持续的通货紧缩。货币贬值的另一种选择是 SARB 采取廉价货币战略。通过将利率设定在历史低位，我们发现南非本可以以更高的通胀为代价实现更高的经济增长水平。归根结底，南非无与伦比的复苏可以归因于贬值；然而，SARB 货币政策的变化和银行对黄金市场的控制至关重要。