Many of the respiratory pathogens show seasonal patterns and association with environmental factors. In this article, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the influence of environmental factors, including climate variability, along with development indicators on the differential global spread and fatality of COVID-19 during its early phase. Global climate data we used are monthly averaged gridded data sets of temperature, humidity and temperature anomaly. We used Human Development Index (HDI) to account for all nation wise socioeconomic factors that can affect the reporting of cases and deaths and build a stepwise negative binomial regression model. In the absence of a development indicator, all environmental variables excluding the specific humidity have a significant association with the spread and mortality of COVID-19. Temperature has a weak negative association with COVID-19 mortality. However, HDI is shown to confound the effect of temperature on the reporting of the disease. Temperature anomaly, which is being regarded as a global warming indicator, is positively associated with the pandemic's spread and mortality. Viewing newer infectious diseases like SARS-CoV-2 from the perspective of climate variability has a lot of public health implications, and it necessitates further research.

中文翻译：

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全球 COVID-19 传播和死亡率——人类发展、气候和气候变化对大流行早期的影响


许多呼吸道病原体表现出季节性模式并与环境因素相关。在本文中，我们对包括气候变化在内的环境因素的影响进行了横断面分析，同时还对 COVID-19 早期阶段的全球传播差异和死亡率的发展指标进行了横断面分析。我们使用的全球气候数据是温度、湿度和温度异常的月平均网格数据集。我们使用人类发展指数（HDI）来考虑所有可能影响病例和死亡报告的国家社会经济因素，并建立逐步负二项式回归模型。在缺乏发展指标的情况下，除比湿度外的所有环境变量都与 COVID-19 的传播和死亡率存在显着相关性。温度与 COVID-19 死亡率呈弱负相关。然而，HDI 被证明会混淆温度对疾病报告的影响。温度异常被视为全球变暖的指标，与大流行的传播和死亡率呈正相关。从气候变化的角度看待 SARS-CoV-2 等新传染病对公共卫生有很多影响，需要进一步研究。