Abstract

Climate change threatens coastal archaeology through storm flooding (extreme sea-level: ESL), long-term sea-level rise (SLR) and coastal erosion. Many regions, like the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), lack key baseline evidence. We present initial results from a climate change threat assessment of MENA's coastal heritage using the Maritime Endangered Archaeology inventory: a geospatial database of MENA maritime archaeological sites incorporating a disturbance/ threat assessment. It informs two analyses of past disturbance and future threat: (1) using the integral threat/disturbance assessment, and (2) geospatial extraction of information from external coastal change models. Analysis suggests <5% of documented coastal sites are definitely affected by coastal erosion but up to 34% could also have experienced past flooding, erosion, or storm action. Climate change-related threats will increase over the 21st Century and accelerate post-2050 if carbon emissions remain high. SLR and ESL could impact 14–25% of sites by 2050 and 18–34% by 2100. Over 30% to 40% of sites could be impacted by erosion by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Whilst documentation is ongoing and there remain modeling uncertainties, this approach provides a means to redress the absence of baseline data on climate change threats to coastal cultural heritage in MENA .

摘要

气候变化通过风暴洪水（极端海平面：ESL）、长期海平面上升（SLR）和海岸侵蚀威胁着沿海考古。许多地区，如中东和北非 (MENA)，缺乏关键的基线证据。我们展示了使用海洋濒危考古清单对中东和北非地区沿海遗产进行气候变化威胁评估的初步结果：包含干扰/威胁评估的中东和北非地区海洋考古遗址地理空间数据库。它为过去干扰和未来威胁的两项分析提供了信息：(1) 使用整体威胁/干扰评估，以及 (2) 从外部海岸变化模型中提取信息的地理空间信息。分析表明，<5% 的记录在案的沿海地点肯定受到海岸侵蚀的影响，但高达 34% 的地点也可能经历过过去的洪水、侵蚀、或风暴行动。如果碳排放量仍然很高，与气候变化相关的威胁将在 21 世纪增加，并在 2050 年后加速。到 2050 年，SLR 和 ESL 可能影响 14-25% 的场地，到 2100 年影响 18-34%。到 2050 年和 2100 年，超过 30% 到 40% 的场地可能会受到侵蚀的影响。虽然文件仍在进行中并且建模的不确定性仍然存在，但这种方法提供了一种方法来纠正缺乏关于气候变化对中东和北非地区沿海文化遗产的威胁的基线数据。