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Causal Loop Diagramming of Socioeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: State-of-the-Art, Gaps and Good Practices
Systems ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-02 , DOI: 10.3390/systems9030065
Nikita Strelkovskii , Elena Rovenskaya

The complexity, multidimensionality, and persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic have prompted both researchers and policymakers to turn to transdisciplinary methods in dealing with the wickedness of the crisis. While there are increasing calls to use systems thinking to address the intricacy of COVID-19, examples of practical applications of systems thinking are still scarce. We revealed and reviewed eight studies which developed causal loop diagrams (CLDs) to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a broader socioeconomic system. We find that major drivers across all studies are the magnitude of the infection spread and government interventions to curb the pandemic, while the most impacted variables are public perception of the pandemic and the risk of infection. The reviewed COVID-19 CLDs consistently exhibit certain complexity patterns, for example, they contain a higher number of two- and three-element feedback loops than comparable random networks. However, they fall short in representing linear complexity such as multiple causes and effects, as well as cascading impacts. We also discuss good practices for creating and presenting CLDs using the reviewed diagrams as illustration. We suggest that increasing transparency and rigor of the CLD development processes can help to overcome the lack of systems thinking applications to address the challenges of the COVID-19 crisis.

中文翻译:

COVID-19 社会经济影响的因果循环图:最新技术、差距和良好实践

COVID-19 大流行的复杂性、多维性和持续性促使研究人员和政策制定者转向跨学科方法来应对危机的邪恶。虽然越来越多的人呼吁使用系统思维来解决 COVID-19 的复杂性,但系统思维实际应用的例子仍然很少。我们披露并审查了八项研究,这些研究开发了因果循环图 (CLD),以评估 COVID-19 大流行对更广泛的社会经济系统的影响。我们发现所有研究的主要驱动因素是感染传播的规模和政府遏制大流行的干预措施,而受影响最大的变量是公众对大流行的看法和感染风险。审查的 COVID-19 CLD 始终表现出某些复杂性模式,例如,与类似的随机网络相比,它们包含更多数量的二元和三元反馈回路。然而,它们在表示线性复杂性方面存在不足,例如多重因果关系以及级联影响。我们还讨论了使用已审核的图表作为说明创建和展示 CLD 的良好做法。我们建议提高 CLD 开发过程的透明度和严谨性有助于克服系统思维应用程序的缺乏以应对 COVID-19 危机的挑战。我们还讨论了使用已审核的图表作为说明创建和展示 CLD 的良好做法。我们建议提高 CLD 开发过程的透明度和严谨性有助于克服系统思维应用程序的缺乏以应对 COVID-19 危机的挑战。我们还讨论了使用已审核的图表作为说明创建和展示 CLD 的良好做法。我们建议提高 CLD 开发过程的透明度和严谨性有助于克服系统思维应用程序的缺乏以应对 COVID-19 危机的挑战。
更新日期:2021-09-02
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