This work presents an assessment of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the 25 km and 50 km resolution reanalysis-forced and baseline and future (RCP8.5) global climate model (GCM) forced simulations produced for the North American branch of the international Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A set of complementary 12 km resolution simulations produced as a part of a different project is also included in this assessment.

Before examining the projections from the GCM-driven simulations, the ability of the simulations to minimally produce a realistic spatial distribution of historical TC occurrence was assessed in simulations forced by reanalysis and the three different GCMs used herein. Then, projections for occurrence, TC related mean precipitation and precipitation intensity, storm duration, the intensity measured by minimum pressure and maximum wind speed, storm size, and translation speed were examined. Several of these characteristics show little to no change in the future in trend or in distribution across the ensemble. However, many simulations suggest a westward shift or increase in TC occurrence over the East Pacific basin and a decrease in occurrence over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Increases (decreases) in total storm-related precipitation are projected where TC occurrence increases (decreases). TC precipitation intensity is found to increase in all simulations over the East Pacific, but projections are mixed over the North Atlantic. Finally, the ensemble projects a distribution shift towards more intense TC over the East Pacific, and a shift toward faster translation speeds over the North Atlantic.

这项工作在 25 公里和 50 公里分辨率强制再分析和基线和未来 (RCP8.5) 全球气候模式 (GCM) 强制模拟中对热带气旋 (TC) 进行了评估，这些模拟是为国际协调区域的北美分部制作的。使用天气研究和预测 (WRF) 模型的气候降尺度实验 (NA-CORDEX)。本评估还包括作为不同项目的一部分产生的一组互补的 12 公里分辨率模拟。

在检查来自 GCM 驱动模拟的预测之前，在由再分析和本文使用的三种不同 GCM 强制的模拟中评估了模拟最小化产生历史 TC 发生的真实空间分布的能力。然后，对发生的预测、与 TC 相关的平均降水和降水强度、风暴持续时间、通过最小压力和最大风速测量的强度、风暴大小和平移速度进行了检查。其中一些特征在未来趋势或整体分布方面几乎没有变化。然而，许多模拟表明东太平洋盆地的 TC 出现向西移动或增加，而加勒比和墨西哥湾的 TC 出现减少。在 TC 发生增加（减少）的情况下，预计与风暴相关的总降水量增加（减少）。在东太平洋的所有模拟中都发现 TC 降水强度增加，但在北大西洋的预测是混合的。最后，该集合预测了东太平洋上空 TC 的分布转变为更强烈的 TC，以及北大西洋上空转变为更快的平移速度。