Coffee cultivation in Central America provides goods and services at local, national, and international levels. Climate change is likely to affect the magnitude and continuity of these benefits by reducing the land suitability for coffee cultivation. To quantify the impacts of climate change on land suitability, we use the Bayesian network model Agroecological Land Evaluation for Coffea arabica L. (ALECA) and estimate the land suitability for coffee production in 2000, 2050, and 2080 under three climate change scenarios based on relative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicate that even under the less severe climate scenarios, over half of the current coffee area in Central America will experience a decline in its land suitability for coffee production, from excellent or good to moderate and marginal, and that the change will not happen in the more distant future of 2080, but by 2050. Under RCP 8.5, most coffee areas become of marginal and moderate suitability. The findings show that the continuity of coffee cultivation in a large portion of coffee areas in Central America is under threat and that farmers and policy-makers should develop adaptation portfolios for their farms and regions in a timely manner.

中美洲的咖啡种植在地方、国家和国际层面提供商品和服务。气候变化可能会降低咖啡种植的土地适宜性，从而影响这些收益的规模和连续性。为了量化气候变化对土地适宜性的影响，我们使用贝叶斯网络模型 Agroecological Land Evaluation for Coffea arabicaL. (ALECA) 并根据相对浓度路径 (RCP) 2.6、4.5 和 8.5 估计三种气候变化情景下 2000、2050 和 2080 年咖啡生产的土地适宜性。结果表明，即使在不太严重的气候情景下，中美洲目前有一半以上的咖啡种植区将经历其咖啡生产的土地适宜性下降，从优良或良好到中等和边缘，并且这种变化不会发生在2080 年更遥远的未来，但到 2050 年。在 RCP 8.5 下，大多数咖啡区变得边缘和中等适宜性。调查结果表明，中美洲大部分咖啡区的咖啡种植连续性受到威胁，农民和政策制定者应及时为其农场和地区制定适应组合。