We explore the extent to which cross-sectional differences in carbon dioxide emissions matter for future valuations of European firms regulated under the European Union Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Counterintuitively, we find that firm-level emissions share a robust concave relationship with future market valuations. Initially, market valuations increase in emissions potentially because emissions are considered essential for normal production processes; however, the valuation premium decreases and becomes negative beyond a threshold of emissions due to looming regulatory and transition risks. Firms in the lower quartile of emissions trade at an average premium of 2.42%, against a 20.78% discount in the upper quartile (the peak is 3.85%). Importantly, the concave relationship obtains only in smaller firms with lower analyst coverage and lower institutional ownership, and the predictive power of emissions is limited to firms with no reported investments in clean technology. Therefore, policymakers might consider promoting the development and diffusion of green technologies.

中文翻译：

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投资者是否关心欧洲环境政策下的碳排放？

我们探讨了二氧化碳排放的横截面差异对受欧盟贸易计划 (EU ETS) 监管的欧洲公司未来估值的影响程度。与直觉相反，我们发现公司层面的排放量与未来市场估值有着强大的凹面关系。最初，排放量的市场估值增加可能是因为排放量被认为是正常生产过程所必需的；然而，由于迫在眉睫的监管和转型风险，估值溢价会下降并在排放阈值之外变为负数。排放量低四分位数的公司平均溢价为 2.42%，而高四分位数的公司折价为 20.78%（峰值为 3.85%）。重要的，仅在分析师覆盖率较低和机构所有权较低的较小公司中存在这种凹关系，并且排放的预测能力仅限于没有报告对清洁技术进行投资的公司。因此，政策制定者可能会考虑促进绿色技术的发展和传播。