The industry is a crucial actor towards the energy transition with the possibility to adopt new energy strategies including a prosumer model. However, industries are struggling to adopt smart energy approaches, and initiatives supporting them should be improved. To enhance industrial participation in energy transition, it is required to assess the optimal energy infrastructure considering its economic advantages and associated risks. Up to date, the literature dealing with energy sizing optimisation does not consider the time evolution of parameters or the uncertainty linked to the energy framework. The objective of this paper is to fill this literature gap by proposing a novel complete methodology to optimise the design and operation of the energy infrastructure for its lifetime while assessing its uncertainty and risk through an uncertainty analysis, as well as to identify the inputs causing it by a two-stage sensitivity analysis. This framework is applied to a case study based on a real industrial manufacturing SME. The results indicate that the proposed methodology produces robust results in front of the present uncertainties, being energy price the one that causes most of it and thus the one more attention should be paid to when evaluating energy investment decisions.

该行业是能源转型的关键参与者，有可能采用包括产消模式在内的新能源战略。然而，行业正在努力采用智能能源方法，应该改进支持它们的举措。为了提高工业在能源转型中的参与度，需要考虑其经济优势和相关风险来评估最佳能源基础设施。迄今为止，有关能源规模优化的文献并未考虑参数的时间演变或与能源框架相关的不确定性。本文的目的是通过提出一种新的完整方法来填补这一文献空白，以优化能源基础设施在其生命周期内的设计和运行，同时通过不确定性分析评估其不确定性和风险，并确定导致它的输入通过两阶段敏感性分析。该框架应用于基于真实工业制造中小企业的案例研究。结果表明，所提出的方法在当前的不确定性面前产生了稳健的结果，能源价格是造成大部分不确定性的因素，因此在评估能源投资决策时应更加注意这一点。该框架应用于基于真实工业制造中小企业的案例研究。结果表明，所提出的方法在当前的不确定性面前产生了稳健的结果，能源价格是造成大部分不确定性的因素，因此在评估能源投资决策时应更加注意这一点。该框架应用于基于真实工业制造中小企业的案例研究。结果表明，所提出的方法在当前的不确定性面前产生了稳健的结果，能源价格是造成大部分不确定性的因素，因此在评估能源投资决策时应更加注意这一点。