This study investigates the sensitivity of physics-based earthquake prediction to the choice of the regional geological model. The generally poor information on the mechanical properties of the Earth’s crust induces large uncertainty margins on the synthetic seismic response. Therefore, uncertainty quantification must be associated with high-fidelity numerical simulation, especially when verging on broad-band simulations (i.e., numerical theoretical accuracy higher than the conventional 1 Hz limit). In this paper, the synthetic seismic response of the Niigata region (Japan), during the Ch$\bar{\text{u}}$etsu offshore earthquake (M_W6.6) serves as representative case study. Three plausible three-dimensional (3-D) geological structures are compared for two point-wise aftershock numerical simulations, duly validated. The framework of comparison targets the Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) for pseudo-spectral acceleration at the surface. The impact of the geology on the variability of between-event and the within-event residuals is inferred from synthetic simulations and related to common parameters representing site-specific conditions.

本研究调查了基于物理的地震预测对区域地质模型选择的敏感性。地壳力学特性的普遍缺乏信息导致合成地震响应存在很大的不确定性。因此，不确定性量化必须与高保真数值模拟相关联，尤其是在接近宽带模拟时（即数值理论精度高于传统的 1 Hz 限制）。在本文中，新泻地区（日本）的合成地震响应，在 Ch$\overline{\text{你}}$越近海地震（中号_W¯¯ 6.6）作为代表性的案例研究。对三个合理的三维 (3-D) 地质结构进行了两个逐点余震数值模拟的比较，并得到了适当的验证。比较框架针对地表伪谱加速度的地面运动预测方程 (GMPE)。地质对事件间残差和事件内残差变异性的影响是从综合模拟中推断出来的，并与代表特定地点条件的通用参数相关。