The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the observational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, an average change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude comparable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes.

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威尼斯海平面上升：历史和未来趋势（评论文章）

威尼斯市和周围的泻湖生态系统极易受到相对海平面变化的影响。在过去的约 150年中，其特征是由于垂直陆地运动和海平面上升的共同贡献，相对海平面上升的平均速度约为 2.5 毫米/年。这篇文献综述重新评估并综合了在量化、理解和预测个体对当地相对海平面的贡献方面取得的进展，重点是最近的研究。下沉导致了威尼斯历史上相对海平面上升的一半左右。目前根据潮位数据去除沉降影响后对1872年至2019年观测期间海平面平均上升速度的最佳估计为1.23 ±  0.13 毫米/年。近年来观察到的海平面上升速度更高，但更不确定。1993 年至 2019 年间，平均变化约为+ 2.76  ± 1.75 毫米/年是根据去除沉降后的潮汐测量数据估算的。不幸的是，卫星测高无法提供威尼斯泻湖内可靠的海平面数据。威尼斯的局部海平面变化与亚得里亚海的海平面变化密切相关，而亚得里亚海的海平面变化又与地中海的海平面变化有关。通过直布罗陀海峡的水团交换及其驱动因素目前构成了估计地中海平均海平面趋势与全球平均值的未来偏差的重大不确定性来源。区域大气和海洋过程可能会对威尼斯海平面的未来年际和年代际变化产生重大影响，其幅度与过去观察到的幅度相当。根据海平面上升的区域预测以及对影响威尼斯相对海平面趋势的局部和区域过程的了解，到 2100 年，威尼斯大气校正的相对海平面上升的可能范围在 32 到 62 厘米之间对于 RCP2.6 场景和 RCP8.5 场景分别在 58 到 110 厘米之间。到 2100 年，与冰盖强烈融化相关的一个看似合理但不太可能的高端情景使威尼斯的海平面相对上升约 180 厘米。目前尚无法预测人为引起的垂直陆地运动，但历史证据表明它们已经有可能对威尼斯的相对海平面上升产生重大影响，从而加剧气候引起的海平面变化带来的危害。