This paper reviews the state of the art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice already depends on operational storm surge forecasting systems to warn the population and economy of imminent flood threats, as well as help to protect the extensive cultural heritage. This will be more important in the future, with the new mobile barriers called MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) that will be completed by 2021. The barriers will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of storm surge forecasting in Europe is reviewed. The challenges for the surge forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. This includes consideration of selected historic extreme events that were particularly difficult to forecast. Four potential improvements are identified: (1) improve meteorological forecasts, (2) develop ensemble forecasting, (3) assimilation of water level measurements and (4) develop a multimodel approach.

中文翻译：

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威尼斯洪水的预测：方法、模型和不确定性（评论文章）

本文回顾了风暴潮预报的最新技术及其在亚得里亚海北部的特殊应用。威尼斯市已经依靠运行中的风暴潮预报系统来警告民众和经济即将面临洪水威胁，并帮助保护广泛的文化遗产。这在未来将变得更加重要，新的移动屏障称为 MOSE（MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, 实验机电模块) 将于 2021 年完成。屏障将依赖于准确的风暴潮预报来控制其运行。在本文中，讨论了威尼斯洪水背后的物理学，并回顾了欧洲风暴潮预测的最新技术。分析了浪涌预测系统面临的挑战，特别是考虑到不确定性。这包括考虑特别难以预测的特定历史极端事件。确定了四个潜在的改进：(1) 改进气象预报，(2) 开发集合预报，(3) 同化水位测量值和 (4) 开发多模型方法。