The Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB), located in the northeastern part of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, has a fragile ecological environment and is sensitive to global climate change. With the progress of societal and economic development, the tourism industry in the QLB has also developed rapidly, which is bound to result in great changes in landscape patterns. In this study, we first analyzed the change characteristics of landscape patterns in the QLB from 1990 to 2018, and we then used the Markov model and the future land use simulation (FLUS) model, combined with natural, social, and ecological factors, to predict the changes in the number and spatial distribution of landscape patterns in the period between 2026 and 2034. The results of the study show that desert areas have been greatly reduced and transformed into grasslands. The grassland area expanded from 49.22% in 1990 to 59.45% in 2018, corresponding to an increase of 10.23%. The direct cause of this result is the combined effects of natural and man-made factors, with the latter playing a leading role. As such, government decision-making is crucial. Lastly, we simulated the landscape patterns in the period from 2018 to 2034. The results show that in the next 16 years, the proportion of various landscapes will change little, and the spatial distribution will be stable. This research provides a reference for the formulation of ecological environment management and protection policies in the QLB.

中文翻译：

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青海湖流域景观格局演变与预测

青海湖流域（QLB）位于青藏高原东北部，生态环境脆弱，对全球气候变化敏感。随着社会和经济发展的进步，昆士兰的旅游业也得到了快速的发展，势必会导致景观格局发生很大的变化。本研究首先分析了 1990 年至 2018 年昆士兰州景观格局的变化特征，然后利用马尔可夫模型和未来土地利用模拟（FLUS）模型，结合自然、社会和生态因素，预测2026年至2034年期间景观格局的数量和空间分布的变化。研究结果表明，沙漠地区已大大减少，并转变为草原。草原面积由1990年的49.22%扩大到2018年的59.45%，相应增加了10.23%。造成这种结果的直接原因是自然因素和人为因素的共同作用，而后者起主导作用。因此，政府决策至关重要。最后，我们对2018-2034年的景观格局进行了模拟，结果表明，未来16年，各类景观所占比例变化不大，空间分布较为稳定。本研究为昆士兰生态环境管理与保护政策的制定提供参考。政府决策至关重要。最后，我们对2018-2034年的景观格局进行了模拟，结果表明，未来16年，各类景观所占比例变化不大，空间分布较为稳定。本研究为昆士兰生态环境管理与保护政策的制定提供参考。政府决策至关重要。最后，我们对2018-2034年的景观格局进行了模拟，结果表明，未来16年，各类景观所占比例变化不大，空间分布较为稳定。本研究为昆士兰生态环境管理与保护政策的制定提供参考。