This paper presents the Evolvability Analysis Framework (EAF), a new perspective on evaluating complex infrastructure systems. EAF enables decision makers to explore alternative transition paths, thus providing several multi-step options to achieve a desired end state. These multi-step transition paths can be particularly valuable when they mitigate the impact of system degradation during the deployment of new capabilities. Additionally, EAF is formulated in a manner that empowers decision makers to apply decision variables, such as a cost cap or an equity metric, which are increasingly relevant to modern decision-making. To demonstrate the method and its value, we apply the EAF to a case study inspired by Los Angeles’ Vision 2028. We identify 26 transition paths across different performance dimensions. We model the cost and performance of each transition pathway and compare them using multiple measures, including traditional benefit-cost metrics and differential impacts on different stakeholder groups. Our results show that multi-step paths outperform single-step transitions to an end state (“big bang” approaches) in most scenarios. Multi-step paths also provide valuable alternatives when particular stakeholders value non-cost metrics.

中文翻译：

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可进化性分析框架：将过渡路径和利益相关者多样性添加到基础设施规划中

本文介绍了可进化性分析框架 (EAF)，这是一种评估复杂基础设施系统的新视角。EAF 使决策者能够探索替代过渡路径，从而提供多个多步骤选项来实现所需的最终状态。当这些多步骤过渡路径在部署新功能期间减轻系统退化的影响时，它们可能特别有价值。此外，EAF 的制定方式使决策者能够应用与现代决策越来越相关的决策变量，例如成本上限或权益指标。为了演示该方法及其价值，我们将 EAF 应用于受洛杉矶愿景 2028 启发的案例研究。我们确定了 26 条跨越不同性能维度的过渡路径。我们对每个转型路径的成本和绩效进行建模，并使用多种措施进行比较，包括传统的收益成本指标和对不同利益相关者群体的不同影响。我们的结果表明，在大多数情况下，多步路径优于单步转换到最终状态（“大爆炸”方法）。当特定利益相关者重视非成本指标时，多步骤路径也提供了有价值的替代方案。