Building parable economies embedding econometricians, we view alternative estimators (instrument Variables, fuzzy regression discontinuity, natural experiments, OLS, event studies) from the perspective of privately informed decision-makers, e.g., CFOs. instrument Variable estimates can be misleading since randomization through observable instruments eliminates signal content arising from discretion. If the goal is informing discretionary decisions, rather than predicting outcomes after forced/mistaken actions, instrumentation is problematic, whereas OLS or event studies can be sufficient. The analysis shows that the utility of alternative estimators hinges upon often neglected assumptions about agent/econometrician information sets, as distinct from exclusion restrictions. We recommend parable economy estimation before real-world IV estimation.

构建嵌入计量经济学家的寓言经济，我们从私人知情决策者（例如 CFO）的角度看待替代估计量（工具变量、模糊回归不连续性、自然实验、OLS、事件研究）。工具 变量估计可能会产生误导，因为通过可观察工具进行随机化消除了由判断引起的信号内容。如果目标是为酌情决定提供信息，而不是在强制/错误行动后预测结果，则仪器是有问题的，而 OLS 或事件研究就足够了。分析表明，替代估计量的效用取决于关于代理人/计量经济学家信息集的经常被忽视的假设，这与排除限制不同。我们建议在实际 IV 估计之前进行寓言经济估计。