To establish a risk prediction model for pancreatic fistula according to the pancreatic fistula standards of the 2016 edition. Clinical data from 223 patients with PD admitted to Tianjin Third Central Hospital from January 2016 to December 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into modeling (January 2016 to December 2018) and validation (January 2019 to December 2020) sets according to the time of admission. The risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) were screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and a risk prediction model for POPF was established in the modeling set. This score was tested in the validation set. Logistic regression analysis showed that the main pancreatic duct index and CT value were independent risk factors according to the 2016 pancreatic fistula grading standard, based on which a risk prediction model for POPF was established. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under the curve was 0.775 in the modeling set and 0.848 in the validation set. The main pancreatic duct index and CT value of the pancreas are closely related to the occurrence of pancreatic fistula after PD, and the established risk prediction model for pancreatic fistula has good prediction accuracy.

中文翻译：

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胰十二指肠切除术后胰瘘风险预测模型的建立：2016版胰瘘定义及分级体系：223例单中心经验

根据2016年版胰瘘标准建立胰瘘风险预测模型。回顾性分析天津市第三中心医院2016年1月至2020年12月收治的223例PD患者的临床资料。患者根据入院时间分为建模组（2016年1月至2018年12月）和验证组（2019年1月至2020年12月）。通过单变量和多变量logistic回归分析筛选术后胰瘘（POPF）的危险因素，并在建模集中建立POPF的风险预测模型。该分数在验证集中进行了测试。Logistic回归分析显示，根据2016年胰瘘分级标准，主胰管指数和CT值是独立危险因素，在此基础上建立了POPF的风险预测模型。接受者操作特征曲线分析表明，曲线下面积在模型集中为 0.775，在验证集中为 0.848。胰腺的主要胰管指数和CT值与PD后胰瘘的发生密切相关，建立的胰瘘风险预测模型具有较好的预测准确性。