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Abstract

Background:

Effective vaccines, improved testing technologies, and decreases in COVID-19 incidence prompt an examination of the choices available to residential college administrators seeking to safely resume in-person campus activities in fall 2021.

Objective:

To help college administrators design and evaluate customized COVID-19 safety plans.

Design:

Decision analysis using a compartmental epidemic model to optimize vaccination, testing, and other nonpharmaceutical interventions depending on decision makers' preferences, choices, and assumptions about epidemic severity and vaccine effectiveness against infection, transmission, and disease progression.

Setting:

U.S. residential colleges.

Participants:

Hypothetical cohort of 5000 persons (students, faculty, and staff) living and working in close proximity on campus.

Measurements:

Cumulative infections over a 120-day semester.

Results:

Under base-case assumptions, if 90% coverage can be attained with a vaccine that is 85% protective against infection and 25% protective against asymptomatic transmission, the model finds that campus activities can be resumed while holding cumulative cases below 5% of the population without the need for routine, asymptomatic testing. With 50% population coverage using such a vaccine, a similar cap on cumulative cases would require either daily asymptomatic testing of unvaccinated persons or a combination of less frequent testing and resumption of aggressive distancing and other nonpharmaceutical prevention policies. Colleges returning to pre–COVID-19 campus activities without either broad vaccination coverage or high-frequency testing put their campus population at risk for widespread viral transmission.

Limitation:

Uncertainty in data, particularly vaccine effectiveness (preventive and transmission); no distinguishing between students and employees; and assumes limited community intermixing.

Conclusion:

Vaccination coverage is the most powerful tool available to residential college administrators seeking to achieve a safe return to prepandemic operations this fall. Given the breadth of potential outcomes in the face of uncontrollable and uncertain factors, even colleges with high vaccination rates should be prepared to reinstitute or expand testing and distancing policies on short notice.

Primary Funding Source:

National Institute on Drug Abuse.

中文翻译：

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评估 COVID-19 预防策略，以确保住宿学院在 2021 年秋季安全开放

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 抽象的

 背景：

有效的疫苗、改进的检测技术以及 COVID-19 发病率的下降促使寄宿学院管理人员开始审视寻求在 2021 年秋季安全恢复面对面校园活动的选择。

 客观的：

帮助大学管理人员设计和评估定制的 COVID-19 安全计划。

 设计：

使用分区流行病模型进行决策分析，根据决策者对流行病严重程度以及疫苗对感染、传播和疾病进展的有效性的偏好、选择和假设来优化疫苗接种、检测和其他非药物干预措施。

 环境：

美国的住宿学院。

 参加者：

假设有 5000 人（学生、教职员工）在校园内生活和工作。

 测量：

120 天学期内的累计感染数。

 结果：

在基本情况假设下，如果疫苗可以实现 90% 的覆盖率，且疫苗对感染有 85% 的保护作用，对无症状传播有 25% 的保护作用，那么该模型发现，校园活动可以恢复，同时将累计病例控制在人口的 5% 以下无需进行常规、无症状检测。由于使用这种疫苗的人口覆盖率为 50%，因此对累积病例的类似上限将需要每天对未接种疫苗的人进行无症状检测，或者结合减少检测频率和恢复积极的疏远措施以及其他非药物预防政策。大学在没有广泛的疫苗接种覆盖率或高频检测的情况下恢复 COVID-19 之前的校园活动，使其校园人口面临广泛病毒传播的风险。

 局限性：

数据的不确定性，特别是疫苗有效性（预防和传播）；不区分学生和雇员；并假设社区混合有限。

 结论：

疫苗接种覆盖率是寄宿学院管理人员寻求在今年秋季安全恢复大流行前运营的最有力工具。考虑到面对不可控和不确定因素可能产生的广泛结果，即使是疫苗接种率高的大学也应该准备好在短时间内重新制定或扩大检测和疏远政策。

 主要资金来源：

国家药物滥用研究所。