Abstract

Problem solving in a materially rich environment requires interacting with chance. Sixty-four participants were invited to solve 5-letter anagrams presented as movable tiles in conditions that either allowed the participants to move the tiles as they wished or only allowed random shuffling (without rearranging the tiles post shuffling) thus contrasting pure luck with an interactive model. We hypothesised that shuffling would break unhelpful mental sets and introduce beneficial unplanned problem-solving trajectories. However, participants performed significantly worse when shuffling, which suggests luck plays less of a role than has been previously suggested. Granular analysis of seven critical cases revealed arbitrary path dependency across both conditions and moments of missed luck. It also questions current models of non-agentic luck and the ability to separate agent and luck. This research has implications for fostering better problem solving in an uncertain and fluid world.

摘要

在物质丰富的环境中解决问题需要与机会互动。邀请 64 名参与者解决以可移动瓷砖形式呈现的 5 个字母的字谜，条件是允许参与者随意移动瓷砖或只允许随机洗牌（洗牌后不重新排列瓷砖），从而将纯运气与互动模型。我们假设改组会打破无益的心理状态并引入有益的计划外问题解决轨迹。然而，参与者在洗牌时的表现要差得多，这表明运气的作用比以前所暗示的要小。对七个关键案例的粒度分析揭示了跨条件和错过运气的时刻的任意路径依赖性。它还质疑当前的非代理运气模型以及将代理和运气分开的能力。这项研究对于在不确定和多变的世界中促进更好地解决问题具有重要意义。