For accurate and timely information on the evolving state of our volcanoes we need reliable short-term forecasts. These forecasts directly impact crisis management from evacuations, exclusion zones, and when it is safe to return. Eruption forecasting should not be viewed as an academic exercise or a theoretical discussion in a back room, nor is now the time for dramatic data interpretations or a set of ‘we-told-you-so’ hindcasting demonstrations. To produce a short-term eruption forecast, a systematic evaluation of options is required with a critical assessment of outstanding issues and assumption validity. We run this lens over a set of existing short-term eruption forecasting methods and provide a straightforward data-driven methodology for forecast selection. Six eruption forecasting methods are discussed here: (1) Expert interpretation, (2) Event trees, (3) Belief networks, (4) Failure forecasting, (5) Process / Source models, and (6) Machine-learning algorithms with a view to forecasting: (1) Eruption occurrence (onset time), (2) Eruptive vent location(s), (3) Eruption size, (4) Initial eruption style/phase, (5) Eruption phase duration, and (6) Eruption specific hazards.

This work constitutes a decision tool that can be directly applied to a volcanic system of interest to determine which eruption forecasting methods are possible, plausible, and with what implementation steps. Accompanying this is an extensive evaluation of assumption validity (and assumption avoidance options) to ensure the accurate and transparent application of any eruption forecasting method. Significant potential is identified in methods that are generally data-hungry (e.g., belief networks and machine-learning algorithms), and/or by the coupling of probabilistic methods to process/source models. However, as most volcanic systems are data-poor, expert interpretation and event trees remain the only currently available forecasting methods that can be readily and widely applied during volcanic crises.

为了获得有关火山演变状态的准确和及时的信息，我们需要可靠的短期预测。这些预测直接影响疏散、隔离区以及何时可以安全返回的危机管理。火山喷发预测不应被视为学术活动或在密室进行的理论讨论，现在也不是进行戏剧性数据解释或一系列“我们告诉过你”的后报演示的时候。为了产生短期喷发预测，需要对选项进行系统评估，并对悬而未决的问题和假设有效性进行批判性评估。我们在一组现有的短期喷发预测方法上运行这个镜头，并为预测选择提供了一种直接的数据驱动方法。这里讨论了六种喷发预测方法：（1）专家解读，

这项工作构成了一个决策工具，可以直接应用于感兴趣的火山系统，以确定哪些喷发预测方法是可能的、合理的，以及具有哪些实施步骤。伴随而来的是对假设有效性（和假设避免选项）的广泛评估，以确保任何喷发预测方法的准确和透明应用。在通常需要大量数据的方法（例如，信念网络和机器学习算法）和/或概率方法与过程/源模型的耦合中确定了巨大的潜力。然而，由于大多数火山系统缺乏数据，专家解释和事件树仍然是目前唯一可以在火山危机期间容易和广泛应用的预测方法。