The strong impact and heavy load imposed on the transmission system of a shearer cutting arm is a potential cause of system variation and deterioration. And the overall equipment performance and output efficiency of a drum shearer cutting arm depends to a large degree on the reliability of the transmission system. Therefore, the current study proposes an innovative method for precise prediction of the reliability of the transmission system considering dynamic characteristic and performance degradation. Firstly, for the sake of quantifying the time-dependent reliability with deterioration parameters, a dynamic model of the geared rotor system is established based on the finite element method and the dynamic response is derived based on the main failure mode and the stochastic process model. Then the reliability and reliability sensitivity are estimated based on the probability perturbation theory and the fourth-order moment method. Finally, the proposed method is validated through a comparison to the canonical Monte Carlo Simulation method, which exhibits an average discrepancy of merely 3%. The present method serves as a theoretical guidance and applicable tool for both design and manufacture of coal shearers.

采煤机切割臂传动系统受到强烈冲击和重载，是导致系统变化和恶化的潜在原因。而滚筒采煤机切割臂的整体设备性能和输出效率在很大程度上取决于传动系统的可靠性。因此，当前的研究提出了一种考虑动态特性和性能退化的精确预测传输系统可靠性的创新方法。首先，为了量化带有退化参数的瞬态可靠性，基于有限元方法建立齿轮转子系统的动力学模型，并基于主要失效模式和随机过程模型推导出动态响应。然后基于概率微扰理论和四阶矩方法估计了可靠性和可靠性灵敏度。最后，通过与典型的蒙特卡洛模拟方法的比较来验证所提出的方法，该方法的平均差异仅为 3%。本方法为采煤机的设计和制造提供了理论指导和适用工具。