The Paris agreement focused global climate mitigation policy on limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, projections of hazards and risk are increasingly framed in terms of global warming levels rather than emission scenarios. Here, we use a multimethod approach to describe changes in extreme sea levels driven by changes in mean sea level associated with a wide range of global warming levels, from 1.5 to 5 °C, and for a large number of locations, providing uniform coverage over most of the world’s coastlines. We estimate that by 2100 ~50% of the 7,000+ locations considered will experience the present-day 100-yr extreme-sea-level event at least once a year, even under 1.5 °C of warming, and often well before the end of the century. The tropics appear more sensitive than the Northern high latitudes, where some locations do not see this frequency change even for the highest global warming levels.

《巴黎协定》将全球气候减缓政策的重点放在将全球变暖限制在工业化前水平以上 1.5 或 2°C 以内。因此，危害和风险的预测越来越多地以全球变暖水平而不是排放情景为框架。在这里，我们使用多方法方法来描述由平均海平面变化驱动的极端海平面变化，这些变化与广泛的全球变暖水平相关，从 1.5 到 5°C，并且对于大量位置，提供统一的覆盖范围世界上大部分的海岸线。我们估计，到 2100 年，所考虑的 7,000 多个地点中的约 50% 将至少每年经历一次目前的 100 年极端海平面事件，即使在 1.5°C 的升温以下，而且通常在世纪。热带地区似乎比北部高纬度地区更敏感，