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Modelling the effects of urbanization on nutrients pollution for prospective management of a tropical watershed: A case study of Skudai River watershed
Ecological Modelling ( IF 2.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109721
Al-Amin Danladi Bello 1 , Mohd Ridza Mohd Haniffah 2
Affiliation  

Nutrient pollution is considered as a primary factor of water quality deterioration in urban-dominated watersheds in which an informed decision on the management strategies are required to improve the water quality condition. The Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) model is used to evaluate the impacts of pollution by these nutrients using the Skudai River watershed in Malaysia as a case study. A developed land-use/land-cover (LU/LC) scenarios were used to evaluate these impacts. Statistical methods were employed to assess the extent of these impacts and their significance in shifting the trophic state of the rivers in the watershed. The study shows that when urban development increases from 18.2 to 49.2%, the total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads increase from 3.08 to 4.56 × 10 3 kg/yr and from 0.13 to 0.27 × 103 kg/yr, respectively. Streamflow and stream concentrations (NH3single bondN, NO3single bondN, and PO4-P) produce varying responses as the watershed land-use changes (from 1989 to 2039). As the rivers in the watershed shift their trophic state with respect to the level of anthropogenic disturbance within their catchments, the TN and TP concentrations at the estuaries are likely to change from oligotrophic to eutrophic state. This is an indication that the Johor Strait and the coastal rivers will be exposed to eutrophication, subsequently resulting in harmful algal bloom. This condition can be prevented by integrating water quality management alongside urban development because it is observed that a control of non-point source (NPS) pollutants from 1% of the urban development will decrease TN and TP concentration in Skudai River by 0.023 mg/L and 0.004 mg/L respectively.



中文翻译:

模拟城市化对热带流域未来管理养分污染的影响:以士姑来河流域为例

养分污染被认为是城市主导流域水质恶化的主要因素,需要对管理策略做出明智的决定以改善水质状况。水文模拟程序 Fortran (HSPF) 模型以马来西亚士姑来河流域为案例研究,用于评估这些养分造成的污染影响。已开发的土地利用/土地覆盖 (LU/LC) 情景用于评估这些影响。使用统计方法来评估这些影响的程度及其在改变流域河流营养状态方面的重要性。研究表明,当城市发展从18.2%增加到49.2%时,总氮(TN)和总磷(TP)负荷从3.08增加到4.56×10 3 公斤/年和从 0.13 到 0.27 × 10 3 公斤/年,分别。水流和水流浓度(NH 3单键 N、NO 3单键 N 和 PO 4-P) 随着流域土地利用的变化(从 1989 年到 2039 年)产生不同的响应。随着流域内河流相对于其流域内的人为干扰水平改变其营养状态,河口的 TN 和 TP 浓度可能从贫营养状态变为富营养状态。这表明柔佛海峡和沿海河流将面临富营养化,从而导致有害的藻华。这种情况可以通过将水质管理与城市发展相结合来防止,因为据观察,控制 1% 的城市发展中的非点源 (NPS) 污染物将使士姑来河的 TN 和 TP 浓度降低 0.023 mg/L和 0.004 毫克/升。

更新日期:2021-08-30
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