ABSTRACT

In this paper, a new method is developed to consider the effect of pipe roughness, diameter and nodal demand uncertainty on the overall reliability of the Water Distribution networks (WDNs) throughout the day as well as the planning horizon. For this purpose, probabilistic series for each of the mentioned parameters is generated by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). Network Pressure Reliability Index (NPRI) is then used to evaluate the overall reliability of the system. The study is performed on the benchmark Two-loop sample network and a real-world one. The comparison of deterministic and stochastic results reveal that the stochastic method tends to capture subtleties missed by deterministic method such as probability of failing the reliability in various locations at the same time. Also, the stochastic method seems to have an undoubted advantage in prediction of undesirable results prior to deterministic method, making it an essential component in long-term planning.

摘要

在本文中，开发了一种新方法来考虑管道粗糙度、直径和节点需求不确定性对全天配水网络 (WDN) 的整体可靠性以及规划范围的影响。为此，每个提到的参数的概率序列由蒙特卡洛模拟 (MCS) 生成。然后使用网络压力可靠性指数 (NPRI) 来评估系统的整体可靠性。该研究是在基准双环样本网络和真实世界的样本网络上进行的。确定性和随机性结果的比较表明，随机性方法倾向于捕捉确定性方法遗漏的细微之处，例如同时在不同位置的可靠性失败的概率。还，