Atmospheric Pollution Research ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-28 , DOI: 10.1016/j.apr.2021.101177 Thomas Plocoste 1, 2 , Rudy Calif 2
In the literature, it is well known that mineral dust play a key role in the atmospheric radiation budget. How to identify the cause–effect relationship between mineral dust and climatic parameters remains a crucial issue in atmospheric science and environment. In this study, the causal relation between particulate matter that have an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 diameter () and air Temperature () is investigated for different time scales. For this purpose, two normalization schemes based on San Liang (2014)’s information flow formula and the classical convergent cross mapping introduced by Sugihara et al. (2012) were applied to eleven years of daily time series recorded in Guadeloupe archipelago. Both methods showed there is a bidirectional causality between the studied parameters. Indeed, we noticed that concentrations tend to stabilize values. This phenomenon has been attributed to a greenhouse effect which is strongly linked to African dust seasonality. During the high dust season, this effect is 13.2 times greater than in the low season. On the other hand, we found that values tend to make concentrations more uncertain in the low dust season while they homogenize fluctuations in the high season. All these behaviors could be assigned to the impact of values on dry deposition velocity. To conclude, our results showed that information flow approach is an efficient tool to extract the cause–effect relationship between two dynamical events in atmospheric science, i.e. a field where several parameters interact simultaneously.
中文翻译:
颗粒物 (PM10) 和空气温度数据之间是否存在因果关系?基于梁-克利曼信息传递理论的分析
在文献中,众所周知,矿物粉尘在大气辐射收支中起着关键作用。如何确定矿物粉尘与气候参数之间的因果关系仍然是大气科学和环境中的一个关键问题。在本研究中,空气动力学直径小于 10 的颗粒物之间的因果关系 直径 () 和空气温度 () 针对不同的时间尺度进行研究。为此,基于 San Liang (2014) 的信息流公式和 Sugihara 等人引入的经典收敛交叉映射的两种归一化方案。(2012) 应用于瓜德罗普群岛记录的 11 年每日时间序列。两种方法都表明研究参数之间存在双向因果关系。确实,我们注意到 浓度趋于稳定 值。这种现象归因于与非洲沙尘季节性密切相关的温室效应。在高尘季节,这种影响是淡季的 13.2 倍。另一方面,我们发现 价值观往往使 在低尘季节,当它们均质化时,浓度更加不确定 旺季波动。所有这些行为都可以归因于 值 干沉积速度。总之,我们的结果表明,信息流方法是提取大气科学中两个动力事件之间因果关系的有效工具,即多个参数同时相互作用的领域。