Global models are an essential tool for climate projections, but conventional coarse-resolution atmospheric general circulation models suffer from errors both in their parameterized cloud physics and in their representation of climatically important circulation features. A notable recent study by Terai et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274) documents a global model capable of reproducing the regime-based effect of aerosols on cloud liquid water path expected from observational evidence. This may represent a significant advance in cloud process fidelity in global models. Such models can be expected to give a better estimate of the effective radiative forcing of the climate. If this advance in cloud process representation can be matched by advances in the representation of circulation features such as monsoons, then such models may also be able to navigate the complex tangle between spatially heterogeneous aerosol–cloud interactions and regional circulation patterns. This tight link between aerosol and circulation results in anthropogenic perturbations of climate variables of societal importance, such as regional rainfall distributions. Upcoming global models with km-scale resolution may improve the regional circulation and be able to take advantage of the Terai et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274) improvement in cloud physics. If so, an era of significantly improved regional climate projection capabilities may soon dawn. If not, then the improvement in cloud physics might spur intensified efforts on problems in model dynamics. Either way, based on the rapid changes in aerosol emissions in the near future, learning to make reliable projections based on biased models is a skill that will not go out of style.

中文翻译：

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全球气候模型的兴衰

全球模式是气候预测的重要工具，但传统的粗分辨率大气环流模式在参数化云物理和对气候重要环流特征的表示方面存在错误。Terai 等人最近的一项值得注意的研究。（2020，https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274）记录了一个全球模型，该模型能够再现气溶胶对观测证据预期的云液态水路径的基于制度的影响。这可能代表了全球模型中云过程保真度的重大进步。预计此类模型将更好地估计气候的有效辐射强迫。如果云过程表示的这种进步可以与季风等环流特征表示的进步相匹配，那么这样的模型也可能能够驾驭空间异质气溶胶-云相互作用和区域环流模式之间的复杂纠缠。气溶胶和环流之间的这种紧密联系导致了具有社会重要性的气候变量的人为扰动，例如区域降雨分布。即将推出的具有公里级分辨率的全球模型可能会改善区域环流并能够利用 Terai 等人的优势。（2020，https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274）云物理的改进。如果是这样，一个区域气候预测能力显着提高的时代可能很快就会到来。如果没有，那么云物理的改进可能会刺激对模型动力学问题的加紧努力。无论哪种方式，基于近期气溶胶排放的快速变化，