Accidents resulting in industrial fires in chemical and process installations and in industrial parks where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or processed may cause domino effects. Probit models developed and used in a multitude of studies can provide the probability of equipment failure, but they do not consider the effect of multiple radiation sources, and thus fail to capture the effects of severe scenarios as those where multiple fires start at different times in different units. In the present study, a critical thermal dose for equipment failure is defined. A direct procedure for the calculation of ttf based on the critical thermal dose is then introduced, which is able to account for the time at which the different secondary fires start or are extinguished. This allows considering the effects of the primary and of several secondary fire scenarios in causing a domino effect, updating the time to failure on the basis of the dynamic evolution of multiple fire scenarios. The proposed approach is demonstrated through case-studies addressing fire-induced domino effects in an oil storage tank farm.

在化学和加工装置以及在储存或加工相关数量的危险物质的工业园区中导致工业火灾的事故可能会导致多米诺骨牌效应。大量研究中开发和使用的 Probit 模型可以提供设备故障的概率，但它们没有考虑多个辐射源的影响，因此无法捕捉到多个火灾在不同时间开始的严重场景的影响。不同的单位。在本研究中，定义了设备故障的临界热剂量。计算ttf的直接程序然后基于临界热剂量引入，这能够解释不同次生火灾开始或熄灭的时间。这允许考虑主要和几个次要火灾场景在引起多米诺骨牌效应方面的影响，根据多个火灾场景的动态演变更新故障时间。所提出的方法通过案例研究来证明，该案例研究解决了储油罐区火灾引起的多米诺骨牌效应。