It is widely recognised that burglary and theft offence trends have broadly moved in parallel in ‘Western’ market-based countries since the 1950s. Most researchers have focussed on the trend from the early 1990s onwards, when burglary and theft offence rates plummeted. One major proposed explanation for this trend, relates to improved security. This paper draws on the longitudinal variations in reward of electronic consumer goods to propose a complementary account. This argument is supported by criminological theory, empirical evidence, and historical trends of specific property crime offences. The paper concludes by explaining that reward and security operate in partnership to influence the opportunity for crime, which provides an optimal account for burglary and theft offence trends over the last 40 years.

中文翻译：

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西方市场国家在犯罪率下降前和下降期间电子消费品奖励变化对入室盗窃和盗窃犯罪的影响

众所周知，自 1950 年代以来，入室盗窃和盗窃犯罪趋势在“西方”以市场为基础的国家大致同步发展。大多数研究人员都关注 1990 年代初以来的趋势，当时入室盗窃和盗窃犯罪率直线下降。对此趋势的一个主要建议解释与提高安全性有关。本文借鉴电子消费品奖励的纵向变化，提出了一个补充账户。这一论点得到了犯罪学理论、经验证据和特定财产犯罪的历史趋势的支持。该论文最后解释说，奖励和安全共同作用以影响犯罪机会，这为过去 40 年的入室盗窃和盗窃犯罪趋势提供了最佳解释。