Several of the largest U.S. police departments reported a sharp increase in officer resignations following massive public protests directed at policing in the summer of 2020. Yet, to date, no study has rigorously assessed the impact of the George Floyd protests on police resignations. We fill this void using 60 months of employment data from a large police department in the western United States. Bayesian structural time-series modeling shows that voluntary resignations increased by 279% relative to the synthetic control, and the model predicts that resignations will continue at an elevated level. However, retirements and involuntary separations were not significantly affected during the study period.

中文翻译：

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乔治·弗洛伊德 (George Floyd) 抗议活动后的夏季警察更替率上升：一项综合对照研究

据报道，在 2020 年夏季针对警务的大规模公众抗议活动之后，美国几个最大的警察部门的辞职人数急剧增加。然而，迄今为止，还没有研究严格评估乔治·弗洛伊德 (George Floyd) 抗议活动对警察辞职的影响。我们使用来自美国西部一个大型警察局的 60 个月的就业数据来填补这一空白。贝叶斯结构时间序列模型显示，相对于综合控制，自愿辞职增加了 279%，并且该模型预测辞职将继续处于较高水平。然而，在研究期间，退休和非自愿离职并未受到显着影响。