To accurately predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts under different conditions, an outburst risk prediction system and risk level indices value system were constructed based on extension theory. The prediction system includes 6 indices and 4 risk levels. The subjective and objective weights of the prediction indices were determined according to a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and simple correlation function, respectively. Finally, a prediction model for the quantitative characterization of the outburst risk through the degree of correlation of the risk level was established. The outburst risk of 12 high-gas mines was predicted by using the prediction model. The prediction result of the outburst risk level was consistent with actual outburst disaster occurrences, and the variation of the actual outburst coal and rock mass quality was consistent with the degree of correlation of the maximum risk level. Based on typical outbursts of coal seam, the values of gas pressure and coal seam gas content were reduced step by step, and then the adjusted values were substituted into the prediction model. When the coal seam gas pressure was reduced to 0.75 MPa, the outburst risk level was reduced to low risk. This value is consistent with the empirical value (0.74 MPa) that is used to define an outburst of coal seam at a coal mine site. The prediction model has practical significance to prevent coal and gas outbursts, optimize gas drainage outburst prevention technology, and improve process safety risk control in coal mine.

为准确预测不同条件下煤与瓦斯突出的风险，基于可拓理论构建了突出风险预测体系和风险等级指标值体系。预测系统包括6个指标和4个风险等级。根据模糊层次分析法和简单相关函数分别确定预测指标的主观权重和客观权重。最后，通过风险水平的相关程度，建立了对突发风险进行定量表征的预测模型。利用预测模型对12个高瓦斯矿井的突出风险进行了预测。突出风险等级的预测结果与实际的突出灾害发生情况一致，实际突出煤岩体质量的变化与最大风险等级的相关程度一致。根据典型煤层突出情况，逐步降低瓦斯压力值和煤层瓦斯含量值，然后将调整后的值代入预测模型中。当煤层瓦斯压力降低到0.75 MPa时，突出风险等级降低为低风险。该值与用于定义煤矿现场煤层突出的经验值 (0.74 MPa) 一致。该预测模型对预防煤与瓦斯突出、优化瓦斯抽采防治技术、提高煤矿过程安全风险控制具有现实意义。根据典型煤层突出情况，逐步降低瓦斯压力值和煤层瓦斯含量值，然后将调整后的值代入预测模型中。当煤层瓦斯压力降低到0.75 MPa时，突出风险等级降低为低风险。该值与用于定义煤矿现场煤层突出的经验值 (0.74 MPa) 一致。该预测模型对预防煤与瓦斯突出、优化瓦斯抽采防治技术、提高煤矿过程安全风险控制具有现实意义。根据典型煤层突出情况，逐步降低瓦斯压力值和煤层瓦斯含量值，然后将调整后的值代入预测模型中。当煤层瓦斯压力降低到0.75 MPa时，突出风险等级降低为低风险。该值与用于定义煤矿现场煤层突出的经验值 (0.74 MPa) 一致。该预测模型对预防煤与瓦斯突出、优化瓦斯抽采防治技术、提高煤矿过程安全风险控制具有现实意义。爆发风险级别降至低风险。该值与用于定义煤矿现场煤层突出的经验值 (0.74 MPa) 一致。该预测模型对预防煤与瓦斯突出、优化瓦斯抽采防治技术、提高煤矿过程安全风险控制具有现实意义。爆发风险级别降至低风险。该值与用于定义煤矿现场煤层突出的经验值 (0.74 MPa) 一致。该预测模型对预防煤与瓦斯突出、优化瓦斯抽采防治技术、提高煤矿过程安全风险控制具有现实意义。