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A comparative assessment of gully erosion spatial predictive modeling using statistical and machine learning models
Catena ( IF 5.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2021.105679
Seyed Masoud Soleimanpour 1 , Hamid Reza Pourghasemi 2 , Maryam Zare 3
Affiliation  

In recent years, gully erosion has ceased many development activities and imposed a living threat to local communities residing in southern Iran. Hence, this study sets out to investigate the prediction performance of a machine learning model named the quick, unbiased, efficient statistical tree (QUEST) model for gully susceptibility mapping. Its results were compared to two conventional statistical models: frequency ratio (FR) and evidential belief function (EBF). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and the true skill statistic (TSS) metrics were adopted to assess models' goodness-of-fit and predictive performance in the corresponding training and validation stages. Results revealed that the QUEST model outperforms its counterparts by giving respective AUROC and TSS values of 88.5% and 0.77 in the training stage, followed by EBF (82.3% and 0.65) and FR (80.4% and 0.62). Similarly, the QUEST model showed the highest AUROC and TSS values in the validation stage (83.2% and 0.63, respectively), followed by the EBF (78.6% and 0.63, respectively) and FR (77.1% and 0.58, respectively). Further scrutinization attested that the QUEST model offers a more practical, compendious, and adaptable susceptibility map based on which about 32% of the study area was identified as the high susceptibility zone to gully erosion. Hence, highly gully susceptible areas require pragmatic mitigation plans. In addition, the application of machine learning models for gully erosion merits further studies.



中文翻译:

使用统计和机器学习模型对沟壑侵蚀空间预测建模的比较评估

近年来,沟壑侵蚀已经停止了许多开发活动,并对居住在伊朗南部的当地社区构成了生存威胁。因此,本研究着手调查机器学习模型的预测性能,该模型名为快速、无偏、高效的统计树 (QUEST) 模型,用于沟渠磁敏度映射。其结果与两个传统的统计模型进行了比较:频率比 (FR) 和证据信念函数 (EBF)。采用接受者操作特征(AUROC)下的面积和真实技能统计(TSS)指标来评估模型在相应训练和验证阶段的拟合优度和预测性能。结果表明,QUEST 模型在训练阶段分别给出了 88.5% 和 0.77 的 AUROC 和 TSS 值,从而优于其对应模型,其次是 EBF(82.3% 和 0.65)和 FR(80.4% 和 0.62)。同样,QUEST 模型在验证阶段显示出最高的 AUROC 和 TSS 值(分别为 83.2% 和 0.63),其次是 EBF(分别为 78.6% 和 0.63)和 FR(分别为 77.1% 和 0.58)。进一步的审查证明,QUEST 模型提供了一个更实用、更简洁、适应性更强的敏感性图,基于该图,大约 32% 的研究区域被确定为沟壑侵蚀的高敏感性区。因此,高度易受沟壑影响的地区需要务实的缓解计划。此外,机器学习模型在沟壑侵蚀中的应用值得进一步研究。其次是 EBF(分别为 78.6% 和 0.63)和 FR(分别为 77.1% 和 0.58)。进一步的审查证明,QUEST 模型提供了一个更实用、更简洁、适应性更强的敏感性图,基于该图,大约 32% 的研究区域被确定为沟壑侵蚀的高敏感性区。因此,高度易受冲沟影响的地区需要务实的缓解计划。此外,机器学习模型在沟壑侵蚀中的应用值得进一步研究。其次是 EBF(分别为 78.6% 和 0.63)和 FR(分别为 77.1% 和 0.58)。进一步的审查证明,QUEST 模型提供了一个更实用、更简洁、适应性更强的敏感性图,基于该图,大约 32% 的研究区域被确定为沟壑侵蚀的高敏感性区。因此,高度易受冲沟影响的地区需要务实的缓解计划。此外,机器学习模型在沟壑侵蚀中的应用值得进一步研究。高度易受沟壑影响的地区需要务实的缓解计划。此外,机器学习模型在沟壑侵蚀中的应用值得进一步研究。高度易受冲沟影响的地区需要务实的缓解计划。此外,机器学习模型在沟壑侵蚀中的应用值得进一步研究。

更新日期:2021-08-26
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