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Economy–energy markets nexus during COVID-19: A dynamic time–frequency analysis
Energy & Environment ( IF 4.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-26 , DOI: 10.1177/0958305x211032630
Masnun Mahi 1 , Shamim Ahmed Khan 2 , Mohammad Zainuddin 3 , Ishtiaque Arif 3
Affiliation  

We investigate dynamics between the economic activities and energy markets—both conventional and clean energy markets, with a sample of daily data from 1 January 2020 to 25 November 2020. We perform wavelet-based time–frequency techniques and measure the market volatility with continuous wavelet transforms. Besides, we use wavelet coherency to understand the co-movement of economic activities and energy markets and employ a nonlinear phase-difference technique to understand the time-varying causality between different series. Our continuous wavelet transform results show that all three market indices experience significant volatility in the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) period, notably during the initial period of the outbreak. The market volatilities are comparatively more substantial in the lower frequency band than the upper frequency, while the latter sustained longer in the markets. Moreover, wavelet coherency results show a strong correlation between the economic activity index and both energy market indices; however, the co-movement is significantly higher for the conventional energy market than the clean energy market. We further detect a positive and bi-directional causality between economic activities and energy market indices. Besides providing fresh and time-varying and frequency-varying relationship between global economic activities and the energy markets, which is currently lacking in the existing literature, our study has significant implications for the heterogeneous market participants in terms of improved price prediction accuracy. Furthermore, our findings can aid policymakers in decision making by showing that the dynamics between energy markets and economic activities change even within a short period, and imply that suitable constant policy interventions are necessary to avoid long-term predicament.



中文翻译:

COVID-19 期间的经济-能源市场关系:动态时频分析

我们调查了经济活动和能源市场(包括传统能源市场和清洁能源市场)之间的动态关系,并使用了 2020 年 1 月 1 日至 2020 年 11 月 25 日的每日数据样本。我们执行基于小波的时频技术并使用连续小波测量市场波动变换。此外,我们使用小波相干来理解经济活动和能源市场的联动,并使用非线性相位差技术来理解不同序列之间随时间变化的因果关系。我们的连续小波变换结果表明,所有三个市场指数在冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 期间都经历了显着波动,尤其是在爆发初期。与高频段相比,低频段的市场波动性相对更大,而后者在市场上的持续时间更长。此外,小波相干性结果表明经济活动指数与两个能源市场指数之间存在很强的相关性;然而,传统能源市场的联动性明显高于清洁能源市场。我们进一步发现经济活动和能源市场指数之间存在积极的双向因果关系。除了提供目前在现有文献中缺乏的全球经济活动与能源市场之间的新鲜、时变和频率变化关系之外,我们的研究在提高价格预测准确性方面对异质市场参与者具有重要意义。此外,

更新日期:2021-08-26
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