This study aims to examine how income-based hypergamy among South Korean women affects the marriage rate. In a society that continues to practice income hypergamy because of its traditional gender roles, a rise in women’s economic status results in a shortage of marriageable men. This study proposes a “male marriageable with higher income pool index,” or MHPI, calculated by dividing the number of males who earn more than a potential spouse by the number of females in the same region. Analyses based on the Regional Employment Survey data (2008 ~ 2018) of 16 regions and 11 years show that the MHPI is positively related to the marriage rate. Further, the effect of MHPI on the marriage rate is influenced by local culture and, notably, has not weakened in recent years. These findings imply that a larger pool of men who earn more than a woman is associated with more marital unions among South Koreans, and this relationship has persisted in recent years. However, the industry composition in South Korea is likely to change favorably toward women’s economic power, which is incompatible with hypergamy. This trend would make it difficult to reverse the decline in marriage rates in the near future unless the tendency for income hypergamy substantially weakens.

本研究旨在研究韩国女性中基于收入的超婚如何影响结婚率。在一个由于其传统的性别角色而继续实行收入超婚的社会中，女性经济地位的提高导致适婚男性的短缺。这项研究提出了“收入池指数较高的男性适婚指数”或 MHPI，其计算方法是将收入高于潜在配偶的男性人数除以同一地区的女性人数。基于16个地区11年的区域就业调查数据（2008~2018年）分析表明，MHPI与结婚率呈正相关。此外，MHPI对结婚率的影响受当地文化的影响，尤其是近年来并没有减弱。这些研究结果表明，韩国人中收入高于女性的男性人数较多，与更多的婚姻有关，而且这种关系近年来一直存在。然而，韩国的产业构成可能会朝着女性的经济力量有利的方向转变，这与过度婚姻不相容。除非收入超婚的趋势大幅减弱，否则这种趋势将很难在不久的将来扭转结婚率的下降趋势。