ABSTRACT

This paper examines the effects of decreasing the water level of Lake Urmia on migration and geographical distribution of the population in the eastern coastal settlements in Northwestern Iran. Initially, we considered the migration statistics from 2006 and 2016, compiled by the National Statistics Office. Then, by using kernel density estimation in ARC GIS, we examined the geographical distribution of the population. Findings of this study show that between 2006 and 2016, about 71.85% of the migrants in the province were from the villages around the lake, which caused the complete evacuation of 53 villages and a sharp decline in population in a number of other villages. While 28.42% of it was related to the other settlements in the province. Also, the results of the density estimation function show that, from 2006 to 2018, most of these villages lost their population, and most of the people are now inhabited in the suburbs of the central cities. It has led to an imbalance in the distribution of population, facilities, etc. The decline in the water level of the lake and the resulting fine dust has played an important role in reducing employment in the agricultural sector and, ultimately, led to reduced rural-urban migration. It seems that with the intensification of the consequences of climate change in Iran and the expansion of the water crisis in the country, the migration crisis around Lake Urmia, by generating socio-economic costs, will be a major challenge for development in this region.

摘要

本文研究了降低乌尔米亚湖水位对伊朗西北部东部沿海定居点人口迁移和地理分布的影响。最初，我们考虑了国家统计局编制的 2006 年和 2016 年的移民统计数据。然后，通过在 ARC GIS 中使用核密度估计，我们检查了人口的地理分布。本研究结果显示，2006年至2016年间，全省约7​​1.85%的外来人口来自环湖村，导致53个村完全撤离，其他一些村的人口急剧下降。其中28.42%与省内其他聚居点有关。此外，密度估计函数的结果表明，从 2006 年到 2018 年，这些村庄大部分失去了人口，现在大部分人居住在中心城市的郊区。它导致了人口、设施等分布的不平衡。湖水位下降和由此产生的细沙对减少农业部门的就业起到了重要作用，并最终导致农村人口减少。 - 城市迁移。看来，随着伊朗气候变化后果的加剧和该国水危机的扩大，乌尔米亚湖周围的移民危机通过产生社会经济成本，将成为该地区发展的重大挑战。湖水位下降和由此产生的细沙在减少农业部门就业方面发挥了重要作用，并最终导致农村向城市的迁移减少。看来，随着伊朗气候变化后果的加剧和该国水危机的扩大，乌尔米亚湖周围的移民危机通过产生社会经济成本，将成为该地区发展的重大挑战。湖水位下降和由此产生的细沙在减少农业部门就业方面发挥了重要作用，并最终导致农村向城市的迁移减少。看来，随着伊朗气候变化后果的加剧和该国水危机的扩大，乌尔米亚湖周围的移民危机通过产生社会经济成本，将成为该地区发展的重大挑战。